INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How to Best Bet the King’s Plate Usually, trainers who win the most races lose the most money for bettors. I.e., the better a trainer, the worse his/her ROI. That may be true on a day-to-day basis, but when it comes to King’s Plate day at Woodbine the past four years, no trainer’s horses are a better bet than those from the barn of Mark Casse. The man himself needs no introduction given his induction into both the American and Canadian Racing Halls of Fame to go along with his 13 Sovereign Awards as outstanding trainer in Canada and three Queen’s or King’s Plate victories. Casse trains two of the 13 King’s Plate entrants on Saturday at Woodbine. The classic goes as race 9 of the 13-race card that begins at 12:45 p.m. ET. Those are two of Casse’s 17 entrants on the day. Casse has won 12 Plate day races from 59 starts since 2021–a total double that of last year’s Sovereign Award winner Kevin Attard. More importantly, though, betting all 59 of those runners to win would have yielded a +28.2% flat-bet profit! As always, this information is not shared to suggest doing the same Saturday but rather to recognize an already-potent barn seems to be especially potent on Plate day, and if you’re handicapping points to one of his horses as a solid contender then your confidence should be solid. Jockeys are more at the mercy of the horses they ride versus trainers being able to work the condition and stakes books, so it is no surprise to see one of Casse’s main riders, Sahin Civaci, atop the Plate day leaderboard with six wins (tied with Rafael Hernandez but with fewer starts and a much better ROI). Sivaci will ride the Casse-trained Ashley’s Archer in the King’s Plate, and he is my value play in the 1 ¼-mile classic. Again, this is not because it’s Casse-Sivaci, but their numbers together do give me a sense of security in backing him at a solid price (12-to-1 morning line). My top pick in the race is Casse’s other entrant, morning line (7-to-2) favorite No Time. The Canadian Oaks winner retains Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez and looks like a strong play receiving five pounds against males at 10 furlongs. I expect her to be a bit closer than we saw in the Oaks, and Velazquez is so good at nursing horses along in these classic races. No Time is a strong single for me in the many guaranteed pools and mandatory payout multi-race wagers on Plate day, and Ashley’s Archer will the horse I’m most trying to crash the superfecta party. Share This:Share
