Inside The Numbers: Pick 3 Betting Strategies for Santa Anita Park Stakes Races on Saturday with expert handicapper Ed DeRosa A five-pack of stakes is part of the Santa Anita Park Saturday card to kick off Memorial Day weekend, and an all-stakes pick 3 (races 6-8) could prove to be among the wagering highlights. The stakes trio is bookended by one-mile turf stakes, and Phil D’Amato has been the leading trainer on grass since the Hollywood meeting began on April 18, and it’s no surprise that one of his go-to jockeys–Hector Berrios–is a leading turf jockey. In the standings above, the jockeys and trainers are ranked by wins, but an important column is HRN Impact %, which measures the ratio of actual wins versus expected wins. Expected wins is calculated by using the win pool. A positive impact score means more wins relative to the expectation. This is a more accurate measure than ROI because it accounts for the whole sample size and not just the winners. All this is to say that D’Amato and Berrios might have a live one in the Fran’s Valentine Stakes (race 6) on Saturday at Santa Anita where Ashleys Sandcastle returns off a brief freshening. She is 2-for-12 lifetime and both wins have come with Berrios aboard. At 8-to-1 morning line she can outrun those odds and be a spicy start to that all-stakes pick 3. That sequence ends with the Crystal Water Stakes, which features a heavy favorite in No. 4 Kings River Knight. He looks awfully tough in here, and rather than try to beat him, I will look to start the pick 3 with a price like Ashleys Sandcastle. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
