By Ivan Bigg So, what do betting rules say about The King’s Plate? If you’ve been reading my columns on the Woodbine website or in the Canadian Thoroughbred newsletter, you know that I don’t believe in betting opinions because opinions are mostly wrong—especially the strongest-held ones. And I was happy to say it was my rules that picked the Moira-winning Queen’s Plate two years ago (for a $1 triactor that paid $200) and last year, after a couple rule horses suffered troubled trips in the King’s Plate, the same horses came through in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Fort Erie to pay $2,020 for a $1 superfecta, just as predicted in my column. So, that’s the background for rules for this year’s Plate. There’s even a 30-1 horse that fits into rule play. Here are the various rule approaches: In-the-money finishes: That’s the best rule for stakes races of any kind anywhere. My suggestion is to box these six best in-the-money horses in superfecta play. It should come as no surprise that the likely favourite, #7 My Boy Prince, has 9 for 10 in the money but #5 Midnight Mascot (10-1) is 7 for 8, #2 Rafaroo (8-1) is 2 for 2, #3 Essex Serpent (2-1) is 3 for 3, #8 Pierre is 4 for 4 and #12 No More Options (30-1) is 7 for 9. Note, too, that #12 has blinkers removed for the first time in its nine lifetime races. Closing fractions in route races: This angle won the 2022 Queen’s Plate when horses at long odds finished second and third. They had the quickest closing fractions in 1 1/8-mile races which made them strong contenders in the 1 ¼-mile Queen’s Plate. The question to be asked is: How quickly have horses closed from the six-furlong point in the race to the end of the 1 1/8-mile races? If there is no 1 1/8-mile race, I use 1 1/16-mile races. #2 Rafaroo has the quickest fraction in his last race at 36 4/5 seconds. He finished second to overwhelming favourite, My Boy Prince, BUT he deserves another chance because this was only his second lifetime start. #3 Essex Serpent has a slower fraction BUT HE WON in a gate-to-wire trip. Can he do it again with his high Equibase pace figure of 115. Superfecta play that could pay big: Superfectas are my specialty (having won three entire superfecta pools at Woodbine when the minimum was still $1) because horses aren’t machines and stuff can happen to top horses. So, here is my superfecta play: 2,3,7/2,3,7/5/ALL and 2,3,7/2,3,7/ALL/5. Fringe players: #4 Caitlinhergrtness (12-1): 20 per cent jockey Rafael Hernandez apparently opts for that mount over #10 Bedard (30-1) which has a decent closing fraction. And #13 Vitality (20-1) beat #10 with an even better fraction. All of these are potential “underneath” horses in superfecta play. Supplemented horses: Connections of #4 Caitlinhergrtness (12-1 with Hernandez up) paid $25,000 to enter their horse late into the race, knowing they had to finish at least fifth to win back $20,000 and obviously are hoping for a better finish. The problem is, the filly had a slow closing fraction in the Woodbine Oaks and therefore isn’t likely to be much of a factor. Take note you can apply in-the-money finishes to other stakes races on the 12-race card and calculate closing fractions in turf route races. And also note there are mandatory payoffs in the 20-cent Power Pick 6 starting in race 7 and in the 20-cent Jackpot Hi-5 in the last race. -30- My Boy Prince photo courtesy of Michael Burns Share This:Share
