Molly Jo Rosen – @MollyJoRosen Race 10 | AOC (50) for 3&up going 1-1/16 mi. (A) Disclaimer – as Robert Geller heard me say every day in El Paso for the season we worked together and it’s still true – the pentafecta is my handicapping great white whale because it is the lone wager I have yet to hit… so if there’s ever a time for me to nail a hi5, let it be on mandatory payout day! Weather is looking like 25c/78f and wet/stormy, so handicap accordingly! With $20 to play here, I’d go: 1,5 / 1,5 / 9,11,13 / 6,8,9,11,13 / 6,7,8,9,11,13 Because… 1-Lac Macaza (main photo, courtesy of Michael Burns): second back off the winter break, consistent at the level, jock switch isn’t notable cuz they’re both rockstars, rail trip should help cuz his best efforts have come from being up/on the lead, plus we should get a juicy price 2-Luckman: stretches back out, last time routing was meh against graded stakes company, does get the 5-pound bug, has to stay engaged early or he doesn’t seem to fire when asked 3-Dun Drum: just missed the win but found home at this level off the winter break last out 4-Jump for the Win: Penn shipper was strong on the lead against state-bred company last Fall so curious to see how the form translates off the layoff and with the surface and barn switches (strong trainer to do it with) 5-Grandson (pictured below, Michael Burns photo): didn’t miss a beat off the winter break and hasn’t run a bad race and at a price in last three starts, but that was against slightly softer company, and hopefully the price holds cuz the talent’s there 6- Malibu Edge: stretches out from so-so sprinting but wasn’t missing by all that much when routing last summer, so the question is why’d he get less speedy and lose ground on the turn cuz he’s got serious ability at this level 7-Fighter in the Win: gotta take notice when a horse is claimed in back-to-back starts, so even though he’s not been the same since leaving Maker’s with the win or coming off the lawn, this is a potent jock/trainer combo and dude’s definitely got some grit, just be wary of too short a price 8-Rapid Test: probably wants 7f and is due a clean trip but always runs his race and stretches back out to a route which he’s done sneakily well in for a barn I find hard to bet against 9-Twin City: toss last summer’s big stakes attempts (which ya gotta take a shot at if you’ve got a promising talent so no knock on the try) and what’s he done wrong? plus Emma-Jayne in the last is an angle I wholeheartedly believe in 10-Tiz Romantic: Saffie ships speedster (say that five times fast) north of the border but he’s running decent against far softer friends and not always holding on to beat ‘em so no thank you 11-South Bend: rolled like a freight train to just miss beating tougher off a 17-month layoff, which can mean he either moves forward that extra length -or- regresses because they had all that time to get that in him and he has to duplicate it a month later 12-On Thin Ice: The Other Casse makes his third start off a year layoff and hasn’t really been anything to write home about mostly because he can’t seem to get out of the gate clean, I get why he’ll be a short price, but I have trust issues 13-Cool Kiss: forget the dirt and the stakes attempts (same thinking as Twin City above) for a horse who loves to be in the mix at the wire, but he seems to be a magnet for trouble in the lane so short-priced favouritism scares me Share This:Share
