We have six fantastic races carded for the turf this Sunday, naturally I have picked (in my opinion) the toughest and most competitive one to take a swing at. Granted, I have my reasons for my selections, but there is no sugar coating it.. ALL of these entrants warrant a chance. So, here are my thoughts: Sunday, Race 3 Top Selection: #1 Charlatan Success 8-1 This fella was highly regarded prior to his first start, however he ended up being a vet scratch that day for whatever reason. When he did make it to the gate, he was the victim of a wide trip on the synthetic which really hampered his chances as the track has had an inside speed bias all season. Next out on the grass he had an “off the gas, on the gas” trip where him and his rider just weren’t in sync. Now he gets the ‘hot-handed’ 5lb apprentice in the irons giving him a significant weight advantage against others in the group. He does have some speed from the gate so should be able to get good position staking position behind or close to the pace – which is where it seems you need to be. Charlatan has 222 offspring on the ground and connects at 16% with turf sprints. Hopefully, he gets the chance to finally get a good clean run. Wildcard: #4 Doyler 6-1 Debut runner goes for Rachel Halden who is 0/3 with 2yr old first time starters on the turf in the last couple of years. Colt is sired by the Street Sense, who has an incredible juvenile season including a runaway victory in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup scoring by 10 lengths at Churchill Downs. However, he doesn’t have much grass pedigree. He gets first time Lasix for this career opener and has been working steadily in preparation for this start. His morning line indicates to me he must have shown something in the mornings to be listed as the fourth choice in this wide-open affair. Longshot: #7 Lumineer 20-1 On paper, his debut really doesn’t look great, but here are a few takeaways from that race to think about. He broke slow from the inside gate in a big field of 11 which is always difficult for a young horse, so he never really got a chance to get going as he ran up into traffic (the stop/start situation). When he got clear from the pack, he tried to make a move on the rail while turning for home – but just ran out of gas. Now the changes are being made as he gets on Lasix, adds blinkers, and gets a much better mid-pack starting point. The surface is a question, but new sire Highly Motivated who has on 62 offspring to date, is 28% with his progeny in turf sprints (14-4-2-2), so not out of the realm that he moves forward on the surface. The Play: $10 WP #1 = $20 $2 exacta 1/3,4,6,7,10 = $10 total $30 Good luck and safe trips for all. Share This:Share
