FRIDAY Undercard best bets: Race 4 – the TAA – I absolutely LOVE the second time turf stretchout move on 2-Smash It with that (blue-collar as it is) pedigree + 13-Test Score worked like an absolute beast of a rockstar with Beach Bomb so much so that I publicly pinged Graham to confirm that was the horse and betting barn stars workmates is among my top three favourite handicapping angles. Race 6 | G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint | 2yo going 5f (T) I don’t see a North American-based horse winning this – I just don’t – and frankly it’s probably gonna be an All Overseas Super. Admittedly, my Euro stakes watching could be better so going by post position order and off Wednesday morning interviews with jocks in addition to the PPs: 2-Aesterius has one clunker under his hooves & Doyle sounded super confident; 3-Big Mojo gets a sizeable jock upgrade with light but solid form; 4-Magnum Force I have no idea what to do with but it feels like he’s maturing at the really right time; 7-Whistlejacket is one of the few who hasn’t played MusicalWinnersCircle with the rest of these so it’s hard to gauge but he’s done little wrong; 12-Ides of March has looked phenomenal in gallops here; and then 8-Ecoro Sieg is undefeated but I tend to not love the Japanese boy juvie division. Bets: $5 WPS on 4 then 10c all-Euro SuperBox combos keying 3 on top Race 7 | G1 NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies | 2yo going 1-1/16 mi. 3-Immersive has the experience and the undefeatedness to take all the money, but she’s going to bounce at some point and I’m thinking it’s coming because 9-American Bikini is dangerous. In the good way! She looks absolutely phenomenal since shipping in and Moore taking the call is a giant flashing neon arrow I, for one, am not going to ignore. If we’re talking underneath price ponies: I want Saez to get 2-Snowyte outside of horses because the talent’s there (so will be the price); and 4-La Cara comes in off back-to-back wins, while handling the stretch out, and being versatile enough to not need the lead. Bets: $5 Win on 9 and $3 Show on 4 then 10c SuperBox using 2-3-4-9-10 Race 8 | G1 John Deere Breeders’ Cup Fillies Turf | 2yo F going 1 mi. (T) 1-Lake Victoria is crazy talented but these young ladies are figuring this racehorse thing out and anything can happen once we load in the gate so who’s gonna be close on her heels? No offense to the SoCal contingent including the talented 7-Thought Process, but this is a division that strongly favours the east coast circuits: 4-Scythian is the best American shot as she cuts back to a flat mile after taking a G2 in her first start vs non-NY-bred company, but what do we do with the two of three finishers in the Jessamine (aka practically a triple dead heat for how long that photo took to parse)? 5-Totally Justified who is fast becoming the girl you can’t ignore, and 12-May Day Ready who is undefeated, and I love that Frankie stays with her; and then there’s 6-Virgin Colada who intrigues for the exotics because you know she’s going to be rolling late and Prat is dangerous with this kind on a big day. Bets: 10c SuperBox using 1-4-5-7-12 then $2 Place Show on both 5 and 7 Race 9 | G1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance | 2yo going 1-1/16 mi. For the Japanese to ship (and for Yutaka Take to come in early for) 8-Shin Believe off one start – albeit a freakishly runway victory – screams Do. Not. Ignore. But also 1-East Avenue has looked the absolute picture of a champion since shipping in and he’s not just undefeated but undefeated by daylight; and the same could be said about 5-Jonathan’s Way so maybe this is where we take the chalk. And since I do think the eastern-based juveniles are stronger, 10-Chancer McPatrick deserves a long hard look, but if you need to think local, then 7-Gaming has caught the eye of clockers I trust (but consider where Prat opted to ride) and 2-Getaway Car intrigues for the price and the fact he’s a gorgeous animal who should want to run all dang day with that pedigree but I wish Bob would put the blinks back on. Bets: $2 TriBox using 1-5-8 then $2 WPS on 8 then $2 Show on 2 Race 10 | G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf | 1 mi. (T) Why do I feel like this is Charlie Appleby’s race to lose? Between 4-Al Qudra who just missed in Woodbine’s G1 Summer last month with a bumpy trip and who might be the sexiest dark bay I’ve seen since Lonhro, and 12-Aomori City who Buick opted to ride despite the lesser form – this just feels like a super strong hand. But 11-New Century (who’s looking for his third straight win) and 13-Henri Matisse (who has looked phenomenal in morning gallops despite a totally tossable last race) aren’t going to just hand their Euro-shipping friends the win. If victory isn’t going across the pond, then 8-Minaret Station is not to be overlooked after shocking the hell outta folks at Keeneland despite a really nice pedigree and showing a lot of grit in his young career for his young trainer; and something bugs me about 3-Noble Confessor – and no, not that he’s still a maiden – so I’m putting him on here in case he jumps up and does something that pays boxcars because the gut wants what it wants. Bets: $2 WPS on 4-8-11 then a 10c SuperBox using 3-4-8-11 (and yes I’m borrowing the 40c dammit!) ~___/> ~___/> ~___/> ~___/> ~___/> ~___/> ~___/> SATURDAY Race 4 | G1 PNC Bank Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint | 3&up F&M going 7f 4-Vahva has become one of the most fun horses of the last few years because she just goes out, does her thing, and always makes money plus she’s looked outstanding in the last few weeks based on trainer / owner social media. Then there’s 6-Society who is the less consistent Vahva but she’s been managed exceptionally well to earn every penny of that $1.8 mil so toss her from tickets at your own peril; meanwhile, my money would lean more towards stablemate 7-Zeitlos even though it’s more workwoman like black type stakes vs the flashy graded ones, she’s all-but looking for her sixth straight win and coming in off that G2 score. Oh and one of the best-bred animals of the weekend is 10-Scylla who is a must-use for exotics but love her to bits. I just can’t trust her anywhere near the top spot; and I’m similarly on the exotics fence with 2-One Magic Philly who intrigues looking for her third straight win but does she spit the bit if she doesn’t get the lead easily? Bets: $5 WinPlace on 4 then $2 WPS on 7 then $2 ExactaBox using 4-7 Race 5 | G1 Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint | 3&up going 5f (T) If you listen to the chatter, 9-Cogburn is the fastest horse to ever run and no one can touch him [insert eyeroll here] and – yes – dude’s talented, but he ain’t untouchable. This is 2-Motorious’ lawn but I’m wary of three total starts since this race last year even coming in off the win so unless we’re getting double that morning line, he’s an underneath play in my book. Instead, I’m looking at game AF 6-Star of Mystery for Appleby/Buick, 11-Big Evs who rocked last year’s running of this race for OtherAppleby/Marquand and who looks the absolute picture of returning champ, 10-Isivunguvungu who won off the extended quarantine prep time and has the potential to absolutely dominate this division. Honourable exotics mentions to 1-Believing who is getting blinkers and should be fast enough to roll with this bunch but maybe not for the top spot but also Moore keeps the call and we’re probably getting a pretty price; and another with a jock situation to point out is 8-Big Invasion who may be a step behind these blokes on talent but gets Frankie in the irons; and 5-Ag Bullet (or silver bullet as everyone points out cuz we love a periodic table-based name) is talented – no doubt – but he wants further and even Baltas has seemed a smidge hesitant in interviews about this particular semi-peculiar spot. Bets: $2 WPS on 10 then $1 ExactaBox using 6-9-10-11 then $2 Show on 8 Race 6 | G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff | 3&up F&M going 1-1/8 mi. 2-Thorpedo Anna. I get that we have to get ‘em in the gate and run the dang thing, but – like – I mean – c’mon – this was a two-horse race on paper and Idiomatic is now off to the shed so I don’t see how Anna gets beat; and the further scratches just emphasize the point. I’ve known McPeek a long time – he was the first trainer I met when I started working on a backstretch 21 years ago – and I have never seen him so proud or excited about a horse, but she simply is That. Dang. Special. I do think 1-Candied is an extremely nice horse who will own this division next year; and 9-Awesome Result has a phenomenal record and is probably the only horse who can sniff Anna’s tailfeathers right now and I like any excuse to watch Yutaka Take (who has been winning races since I was 2yo) on American soil. Bets: $4 WPS on 9 then $1 ExactaWheel All-with-2 just in case something crazy happens Race 7 | G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf | 3&up going 1-1/2 mi. (T) This is the best-looking field of the entire weekend, and I will not be taking questions. I do however respect the side-eyeing of 2-Emily Upjohn’s entry here over being with her own sex but – y’all – it’s Gosden and I don’t second-guess the master, and then hearing Frankie talk about her – nah – she’s on my ticket and probably at the top of it. Buick made a great point in an interview about how soppingly wet the ground was at Longchamp so to maybe forgive some lesser efforts, and I have a feeling Emily – who has looked incredible since shipping over – fits that bill (plus it’s fun when the girl beats the boys). 5-Jayarebe hasn’t done a ton wrong and does get streaky and I do love me a Dalakhani grandbaby but I don’t want him at a short price; 11-Rebel’s Romance, on the other hoof, is a short price I can get behind cuz he’s one of the most consistent horses we’ve had the pleasure of watching in years and him training over this turf this week has made the hairs on the back of my neck stand at attention. Looking at exotics: I don’t know much about 3-Shahryar except he’s caught my eye in gallops; 1-Rousham Park wins when Lemaire is up and that price is going to be juicy; and 4-Luxembourg is so quintessentially British racehorse on looks alone that it makes me (along with Moore taking the call) want to throw a few bucks his way. Bets: $10 ExactaBox using 2-11 Race 8 | G1 Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic | 3&up going 1-1/4 mi. I’m sorry but I don’t love the American chances at victory here. 1-Forever Young is the Travis Kelce of horses – he’s out there having fun, doing his thing, visiting with everyone, and oh by the way is an absolute beast of a competitor when it’s go time. Then there’s 3-City of Troy who comes in like Tom Brady with the hype and the record and the Moore in the irons and they’ve done everything to get him ready – he’s off to the shed after this and doesn’t really need a stallion making score given what he’s done and how he’s done it, but you know these connections want it. On the US front: 9-Fierceness would be the standout for consistency and speed, but 14-Next is a beast of a monster who is admittedly getting the class test of his life here; and it needs to be said that 11-Sierra Leone is one of the prettiest horses of his generation but dude better learn to run in a straight line one of these days. Exotics-wise: 6-Derma Sotogake and 7-Ushba Tesoro and 12-Arthur’s Ride are interchangeable. Bets: $2 WPS on 1-14 then 20c SuperBox using 1-3-9-14 then $2 Show on 12 Race 9 | G1 Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf | 3&up F&M going 1-3/8 mi. (T) This race boils down to is Canadian queen 10-Moira talented enough at this point in her career to topple the princess that is 3-Cinderella’s Dream, who is the quintessential Appleby/Buick turf star. Then you have the likes of 8-Hang the Moon who is coming into great form at exactly the right time (heads up we will absolute not get 10/1 given that ownership group and how excited they are for this) ; 4-War Like Goddess who is game as hell even if she’s not gotten her photo taken since the summer, and 11-Beach Bomb who is training super well and gave ‘Moon all she could handle in the Rodeo despite a wide trip. Exotics-wise: 2-Full Count Felicia needs a good, long look after back-to-back wire-to-wire graded stakes wins at Woodbine; 5-Didia feels a step behind these gals but gawd dayum has she looked outstanding in the barn area this week; and 9-Anisette is sort of like Didia except there is the beautiful story of how the entire Powell family trains this slightly quirky gal and you sort of have to root for them if only sentimentally. Bets: $2 ExactaBox using 3-8-10 then $1 PlaceShow on 2-5-9-11 Race 10 | G1 Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint | 3&up going 6f 3-Federal Judge is the kind of freaky fast horse it’s hard to play against even on the biggest day when we’re all chasing prices and Brad brought him back off the layoff perfectly with two confidence boosters then that G2 score last out was real dang pretty; however, it’s interesting that Irad gets the call vs Franco who’s in the room and knows this horse but you take Irad if he’s available. The reason for the jockey musical chairs is Prat takes the call on 10-Mullikin looking for his fifth straight win this year, but I don’t wonder if he wouldn’t be happier in the dirt mile given how good he is at 7f. Then there’s 11-Skelly who definitely has seconditis, but something in the way Blasi talked in an interview about how workmanlike he is has stuck with me because that’s the horse you can count on to cash your ticket. On the flipside of that are 4-Nakatomi who is talented but seems to be missing that killer instinct required to get his photo taken; and 8-Straight No Chaser who does like having his photo taken but – sorry – what’s he beaten lately exactly? Bets: $1 TrifectaBox using 3-10-11 then 10c SuperBox using 3-4-8-10-11 then $2 Show on 1 Race 11 | G1 FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Mile Presented by PDJF | 3&up going 1 mi. (T) 7-Porta Fortuna is Good with a capital G and her form (and how she’s looked this week) are just phenomenal. Then there’s 6-Notable Speech who was the horse Buick was referring to most when he talked about the ground at Longchamp being a bog so if we take his word and line-through the last start then we’re hanging our hopes on a race from July -but- it was a stellar score in the G1 Sussex, and he has looked impeccable since shipping in. I don’t know what to do with 4-Diego Velazquez who has been conditioned carefully this Fall after a long summer campaign but he’s in off back-to-back nice wins and does seem to like the flat mile. And then there are the US ponies to sort: 9-Johannes has a great record of consistency but – sorry to my home circuit – he’s not exactly beating up on much; meanwhile, 12-Carl Spackler is just out there winning up/down/left/right/centre. Bets: $2 TrifectaBox using 6-7-12 then $4 PlaceShow on 12 Race 12 | G1 1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile | 3&up going 1 mi. If you let a Brian Lynch runner go off at 30/1 – even if it’s seconditis galore – then you deserve to not cash the ticket because tell me what more 7- Tumbarumba has to do (okay besides get his nose down on the wire the last four starts) to be in the conversation for the top spot. Then there’s 8-Post Time who has been the absolute personality of this week but he’s also in off an 11-length romp (against meh competition but that’s still a massive margin); and contrary to chatter, I think this is a great spot for 6-Seize the Grey because remember how he won the G2 Pat Day Mile and dude gets streaky which bodes well because he’s in off a win. Exotics-wise: 11-Cagliostro intrigues, but 2-T O Saint Denis bugs me because logic says toss, but the Japanese don’t ship for funsies and dude ran massive – albeit in the slop – at Churchill in the spring and he’ll be a massive price but like which horse shows up here? Bets: $2 WPS on 7-8 then $1 ExactaBox using 6-7-8 then $2 Show on 2 Share This:Share
