How to bet the Woodbine Oaks with Sheri Riddoch

While I am a player on the majority of days, the Oaks is one of my favourites of the year as it aways seems to attract a big field with a variety of angles you can look at. This year in particular, it looks to be an extremely wide-open affair, and I have had my eye on a few fillies that look to be strong contenders and a few that may round out the exotics at a price.

So, let’s dig in and have a closer look:

10) Aristella – Top Pick and $20 win bet

Princess Elizabeth winner is coming into this race perfectly, even though she finished off the board in both starts this season. She had a wide trip in the Ruling Angel where the track was playing conducive to speed and likely needed that start after the extended winter layoff. The Fury was an oddly run race and while she looked threatening on the turn, just wasn’t able to make up ground on Winterberry, who appeared to be toying with her rivals after a relatively uncontested lead. Now, we get the stretch out around two turns for the first time this season and lots of pace presence which perfectly suits her running style, 3rd start of the year or current form cycle which tends to produce a peak effort. Hernandez looks to have had choice and land here giving the nod of confidence. Rachel Halden has a 21% strike in stakes over the last 5 years for an ROI of $3.19 and I have had my eye on this filly since last September when she made her local debut on the grass.

5) Shifty

Back-to-back Beyers in the 80’s this season and her 3rd place finish in the Fury stakes to her stablemate Winterberry looked to be an educational effort to have her sit off the pace as Civaci wrangled her back to not challenge for the lead. She was 3rd to He’s Not Joking and Dewolf, who are lined up to contest the Plate Trial in the G3 Grey stakes last season before a troubled trip in the Princess Elizabeth. Very dangerous if she doesn’t get caught up in a duel and Civaci won with Elysian Fields in 2023 for this trainer, but are 0/8 in stakes this meet. While I am not picking her on top – I also can’t completely omit her from the picture, and I like her best out of the Casse five-some who all look to have similar front running styles.

9) Crystal Visions

Just came up short second time off the shelf against Tiz Her Money, who came out of that event to run 2nd in the G3 Selene to Serendipity with 77 Beyer really flattering that effort. Adds first-time Lasix for trainer Simon Stuart who has an 11% strike rate on that angle in the last 5 years. She was 3rd in the Princess Elizabeth last November at a big price which was her only try going a route, however if we get that scorching pace up front that looks to unfold on paper – race sets up beautifully for her with any small step forward. Munger has been knocking on the door for a win with Simon this meet after a couple of ITM finishes – today could be the day.

Price Plays:

4) Innisfree Isle

Impressive victory in her second career lifetime start, relishing the stretch out going around two turns, second place finisher Workout Affair was a next out winner on the grass with a 71 Beyer. Filly on the improve is sired by Bolt d’Oro who has a win rate of 14% with his progeny routing on the synthetic (AWD 8.2f) and her dam was 3rd in the 2015 edition of the G3 Mazarine. Big step up on class but if the pace collapses up front, she could reap part of the rewards at a price, Aebly is back aboard and this will be his first stakes mount for CDP.

12) D’aurum

Showed late interest on the turf in her last which seems to be a common theme for her. Puzzling filly by the incredible Medaglia d’Oro looks like she can run all day, Dam was 3rd in the G1 Beverly D to Dank and took the G3 Modesty in 2013. While this looks like a big ask – if the pace falls apart it’s possible for her to catch a piece underneath, Fukomoto gets the call and his last mount for Attard was in the 2023 King’s Plate aboard Philip My Dear in 2023 finishing 9th – she is very intriguing and could very much wake-up here.

Sheri Riddoch @gofilly