It’s a tale of two trainers in Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday featuring recent maiden winners with Triple Crown aspirations. Chief Wallabee and Iron Honor both impressed in their career bows over the past two months, and they both return to the races on Saturday for their second career starts. Bill Mott sends Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Guflstream Park and Chad Brown has Iron Honor in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. Their chances vary for a variety of reasons, but one stat that caught my eye is how these trainers (Mott already in the Racing Hall of Fame and Brown sure to join him once eligible) perform with three-year-old second-time starters in stakes races. Going back to 2015, Mott is 1-for-13 with such runners. The lone winner came on turf and among the losers was Hidden Scroll in the Fountain of Youth and Elate at 3-to-10 in the Suncoast at Tampa. Brown, however, is 9-for-66. I.e. Brown does it more often and with more success. Now, granted, many of the winners were short prices (as Iron Honor will be in the Gotham), but going 4-for-20 with seven second-place finishes in February-March stakes is still noteworthy. All that is to say, I absolutely love Iron Honor on Saturday and taking a wait-and-see approach with Chief Wallabee while acknowledging that both are very much potential players in this year’s Triple Crown season because as Sid Gustafason replied to me on X (formerly known as Twitter), “[Mott] utilizes second career starts as work[outs].” Iron Honor landed in a much softer spot, and the one-turn mile of the Gotham is a nice progression from a six-furlong maiden race. Performance ratings wise, Iron Honor’s figures in his first career start were superlative, and distance should be no issue for a colt by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a dam whose sire–Blame–won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Chief Wallabee is in the most competitive Derby prep so far this year, catching a pair of undefeated stakes winners in Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude plus the up-and-coming Commandment and Jackson Hole from powerhouse stables Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher, respectively. If Commandment really is favored as the morning line suggests then Napoleon Solo is the clear play for me. His Champagne was easily one of the best performances by a two-year-old last year. Yes, stretching out off this kind of layoff is a small concern, but we’ll be compensated for that if he really is the second choice here. Solitude Dude is my alternative if Napoleon Solo gets bet. He is absolutely capable of just blitzing this field given the 1 1/16-mile distance with the shorter stretch. Chief Wallabee rounds out my top three. Ed DeRosa, for Woodbine Share This:Share
