When thinking about how to bet the Pegasus World Cup on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, there are two questions on my mind: Who can/is likely to win and who is the most likely to be in the trifecta? It is the answer to that second question that makes me excited to play this race because No. 8 Poster is 20-to-1 on the morning line and figures to get a great set up to at least be a part of the trifecta with a legit chance to win as well. Make no mistake, 8-to-5 morning line favorite Disco Time is the most likely winner. The undefeated multiple stakes winner is trying a few things for the first time, however. This is his first time in a Grade 1 race, first time against older horses (he only ran against three-year-olds last year), and first time going 1 ⅛ miles (all races have been up to 1 1/16 miles to date). Those are big enough questions to keep me from going all in at a short price, but he is the horse to beat. The public almost always gets this race right, too. The first or second choice have won eight of nine editions of the Pegasus World Cup, and the favorite has been in the trifecta nine times. Still, there is opportunity here with Poster who fell short a head to Skippylongstocking in the Harlan’s Holiday Stakes last out. Poster should improve stretching back out to 1 ⅛ miles in his third start off the layoff. He is the lone closer in the race, which I see as a positive since he’ll likely get a ground-saving trip. Speaking of that Harlan’s Holiday, if I like the runner-up then I gotta like the winner at least a little bit right? Skippylongstocking is a personal fave, so I’m trying not to let bias get the best of me, but he fits here for sure. He will likely be a short price than Poster and have to do more running early. The two horses I’m against in this race are Tappan Street and White Abarrio. The former has the notoriety of being the last horse to defeat Horse of the Year Sovereignty, which he did so at this track and distance when winning the Florida Derby. That was nine months ago, though, and his lone start since that time–while a winning one–did not make me think he’s on a trajectory that moves forward enough to win this at what I expect will be a shortish price. White Abarrio, similarly, will be overbet. He won this race last year and has shown more than enough ability to win at this level given he is the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, but he has not raced since August with a scratch at the gate of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and a missed prep in between. He will have to beat at single digit odds. Wagering wise, I could see Poster being worth a win bet. I will also key him and Disco Time with Skippylongstocking, British Isles, Banishing, Full Serrano, Mika, and Brother Keny in the trifecta and key him with all those same names except Disco Time in the exacta. I could also see playing around with a Poster, Skippy, Banishing, and Full Serrano exacta box and throwing in Disco Time for a tri box. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
