To Baffert, or not to Baffert: that is the question. Is it nobler in the mind to suffer defeat from the slings and arrows of chalk or to arm thy wagers against his sea of challengers? As always with these sorts of pari-mutuel questions: it depends. Bob Baffert trains the favorites in both the Santa Ynez and San Vicente Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. The former is for three-year-old fillies and offers Kentucky Oaks points. The latter is for three-year-old males and-while it does not offer points-is often a key race for Kentucky Derby hopefuls looking to stretch out in their next start. I’ll Baffert in the Santa Ynez and not Baffert in the San Vicente. Explora is the overwhelming favorite in the Santa Ynez, and while I will stop short of suggesting a win bet at odds on, it is difficult to get excited about any of her four rivals–even as half her opposition is also trained by Baffert. Explora finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, chasing Eclipse Award finalist Super Corredora home following a gate-to-wire effort by the winner. There is no one else in this race with the kind of speed Super Corredora showed, and a gate-to-wire effort from Explora seems very likely here. The waters are a bit deeper for Baffert in the San Vicente Stakes. That race also only drew five sophomores, but unlike the Santa Ynez there is a lot of speed in the San Vicente. The type of speed that makes it harder for me to trust Baffert in here at a short price. Buetane is certainly a logical contender here, but he will have company throughout the race. He is also likely to get overbet after being favored against Ted Noffey last out. All Ted Noffey did was win two more Grade 1 races after that, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Buetane did not race again, however, and this will be his first start in more than four months. So Happy interests me most because he figures to get a similar trip as when he won his career debut at 38-to-1. By “similar trip” I am referring to tracking the pace and closing resolutely to get the win. He was wide in a 10-horse field on debut but has post two against four others in the San Vicente. That is a positive. Both stakes are part of the early pick 5. I would look to single both Explora and So Happy, as I think even with Explora being a big favorite narrowing on So Happy should create opportunity in multi-race pools. I’ll definitely bet So Happy to win. Ed De Rosa, for Woodbine Share This:Share
