By Ed DeRosa for WoodbineMile.Com
TORONTO, October 15 – As always, Woodbine
has put together a challenging card for one of its biggest days of racing, and
the great thing about betting on horses is that the rewards are often directly
proportional to the challenge, which is a fancy way of saying if you’re right
then you’re going to get paid.
We’ll try to get paid today in the pair of
Pick 5s and Pick 4s that Woodbine offers on the 12-race card, and each has a
guaranteed pool. The early Pick 5 is races 2-6 and guaranteed at $50,000. The
early Pick 4 is races 4-7 and guaranteed at $150,000. The late Pick 5 is races
8-12 and guaranteed at $100,000. The late Pick 4 is races 9-12 and guaranteed
Here is my ABC grid for all 12 races. As
you can see, not a lot of numbers are missing, so we’ll be leaning heavily on
at least 50% of the “A” column coming in to give us a shot at something good.
EARLY PICK 5 (races 2-6)
The early Pick 5 begins with race 2 and
ends with race 6, which is the Nearctic for turf sprinters and the first of
four graded stakes on the day.
My initial impulse was to lean on Cotai
Glory in the Nearctic, and although he is my top pick to win that race, I think
a lot of people will try to “get live” with him, so if we can be right earlier
and spread later then there’s a chance at an overlaid payout.
In race 2 #3 Releasethe Glacken looks the
most likely winner based on her speed and likely finding her level. #1 is an
interesting longshot play. She’s 0-for-15 lifetime, but showed some signs of
life in last and has run fast enough to win here.
Race 3 is tough with all the first-time
starters. We’ll check the double probables in race 2 to make sure no one is
taking a ton of cash, but on paper the previous runners #s 3 & 10 are the
ones I most want. If nothing looks out of line in the double pools, one of my
more heavier leans will be in this race.
Race 4-6 will be addressed in the Pick 4
Pick 5 part wheel: 1, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9 with 3, 10 with 4, 5, 9 with 7 with 1, 2,
4, 5, 7 ($36)
EARLY PICK 4
I’m most excited about this sequence because
it’s the only one of the four guaranteed pools that includes my best bet of the
day, #2 Grizzel in the Ontario Derby.
Before we get to her, though, there’s the
matter of races 4-6.
Race 4 coming off the turf makes the chalk
look tougher. #4 Giada’s Vegas doesn’t lose any chances, and I have to move up
You’re Mine and Snippy based on synthetic form.
In race 5, #7 Lady With Class intrigues at
6-to-1 as she certainly looks best of the three who have already run, and the
dam has thrown plenty of winners. We’ll again look to the double probables in
race 4 to tip us off to any must uses in race 5.
Race 6 is the Nearctic, and I’ve already
tipped my hand that I don’t have to have Cotai Glory win. I’ve seen plenty of
arguments for both Dowse’s Beach and White Flag, but if I’m going to try to
beat Cotai Glory I’ll have some tickets that try to make it count with #5
Conquest Tsunami who will be on the lead and #4 Ikerrin Road who returns to
turf off two straight synthetic wins. The price is right to bet it’s more form
than surface that has him running so well.
Race 7 concludes the sequence and is the
Ontario Derby for three-year-olds. Most money will be on Queen’s Plate winner
Holy Helena returning to the scene of her greatest triumph, but another
three-year-old filly looms a big danger here as #2 Grizzel finds more her level
after tackling much tougher her last few out.
Pick 4: 4, 5, 9 with ALL with ALL with 2 ($43.20)
with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 with 2 ($63)
9 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 with 2, 8 ($42)
LATE PICK 5
An optional claimer kicks off this sequence
before yielding to the EP Taylor-Canadian International Grade 1 double. I have
#7 Dilly Dally Darby on top, and it will be fun to hear Robert Geller call this
one. #6 Tulsa is a must use, however, returning to synthetic after a tough turf
try where the race was over early.
Pick 5: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9 with 3 with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 with 1, 10 with 4, 6, 8, 12,
13, 14 ($60)
LATE PICK 4
As you saw above, we were willing to single
Quidura in the Pick 5, but we’ll allow ourselves a chance at deeper prices in
the Pick 4, which could really set up for a nice payoff if any of Messi,
Postulation, or Johnny Bear wins, and they all factor in the “A” column.
We all know horses like Idaho, Erupt, and
Chemical Charge can win this race, but nothing from them indicates that they’re
worth half or a third of the price of a horse like Postulation who just missed
in the KY Cup or Johnny Bear, who won the Northern Dancer, or Messi, who might
have with less trouble.
Race 11 is my strongest spot for being
narrow with #1 Discreet Dan and #10 Sevencomingout just looking better than
Pick 4: ALL with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8 with 1, 10 with 4, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14 ($84