Ed DeRosa Picks For The Kentucky Derby

TORONTO, May 1, 2025– The Kentucky Derby is more than just a (the world’s most?) prestigious horse race; it is also a bonanza for horseplayers featuring some of the biggest payouts of the year.

It’s more than just the race itself, though, the whole day of racing at Churchill Downs–14 races in all on Saturday–is a horseplayer’s dream with full fields of competitive racing and star horses that historically has produced some of the highest payouts in the game.

Last year’s Derby day had an average win price of $18.91 with doubles paying more than 100-to-1, pick 3s more than 1,000-to-1, pick 4s more than 11,000-to-1, and pick 5s more than 100,000-to-1.

Of course, the Derby is a big reason why. In a 20-horse field there are 380 exacta, 6,840 trifecta, and 116,280 superfecta combos. An 8-horse field (which is average field size in North America) has 56, 336, and 1,680 combos, respectively. Look at that: There are more than four times as many trifecta combinations in the Derby than there are superfecta combinations in the average race.

And that’s why this is an easy race to get excited about. You’ll have some mushes tell you it’s “just another race” and “money spends the same no matter what race you win it on,” and while those two things are technically true, it is disingenuous to ignore the history of the Derby payouts.

So what is the plan this year to cash in on those big payouts? I have three key opinions:

1. I am a believer in favorite Journalism. His last three graded stakes wins all show an ability to win this race, and his San Felipe Stakes in particular was the best prep race this year. The Santa Anita Derby admittedly was not as good, but that would have been other worldly for him to improve on the San Felipe, anyway. All signs from his training at Churchill Downs indicate Journalism is sitting on go.
2. Chunk of Gold is my key longshot. This horse is under the radar as one who has not won a race as a three-year-old and his connections are unknown relative to the Derby stage, but they are certainly capable. I love that Chunk of Gold was able to lie closer to the pace in the Louisiana Derby. Sure, on that day, it allowed Tiztastic to get the better of him, but he ran on better than other frontrunners, and I’m gambling on even further improvement in the Derby.
3. Sandman is my toss. This horse will be a clear second or third choice, and I think he’ll be especially overused because of his closing style. Throw in the casual interest given his grey color, Metallica connection, and that his co-owner is a major social media influencer, and he is a toss for me.

I will play the race for Journalism and Chunk of Gold to be two of three parts of the trifecta with additional capital on Journalism winning and Chunk of Gold in second or third. The horses I am most excited to get on the ticket with those two are Rodriguez, who is the speed I like most, Grande, who has a lot of upside off that Wood Memorial runner-up finish to Rodriguez, Sovereignty, who has a classic Triple Crown profile, and Baeza if he draws in. If I love Journalism then I have to use the horse who almost beat him, right?

Because Chunk of Gold is such a big price, I am fine keying him with all of the horses I mentioned above in exactas as well.