NEW YORK, May 8, 2025— Ed DeRosa shares his best betting strategies for Saturday’s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont at The Big A. Whenever a frontrunner is a standout in a horse race, there are two things I look at to see if s/he has a shot relative to his (likely) short odds: How much other speed is in the race, and How his/her post does under the race’s conditions. The good news for Captain Cook backers in Race 11 from Belmont at The Big A on Saturday in the “Peter Pan Stakes” is that he passes those tests with flying colors. The bad news is that means a short price is likely. Still, he absolutely is the horse to beat as lone speed from post 8 of ten entrants. Captain Cook tracked Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial Stakes before giving way to that foe after only able to apply mild pressure. If Captain Cook performs well in the Peter Pan, then Rodriguez is an upgrade for the Preakness Stakes on May 17 at Pimlico Race Course after scratching from the Kentucky Derby last week. Post eight does not appear to be an issue, either, as it has won 11 of 62 races going nine furlongs at Aqueduct the past five years, and post nine is an even better 5-for-22. Together in races with between 8 and 10 starters, posts 8-9 are 15-for-78 with a +40.1% ROI. Jockey Manny Franco’s biggest decision will be whether to set the tempo from the outside post or let Vassimo go from the rail and track that foe. Based on never passing Rodriguez in the Wood despite a perfect trip, I wouldn’t be surprised if trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. opts for the gate-to-wire approach here. As for Vassimo, I will try to beat him. Those races at this Derby prep season at Fair Grounds were not overly productive, and this colt figures to take money. The other Dutrow in here, No. 5 McAfee, gets the kitchen sink treatment with blinkers and a new rider (John Velazquez) on. He and No. 4 Hill Road will both be running late, and I prefer McAfee at the bigger price. However, if Vassimo is a clear second choice, then Hill Road is playable underneath Captain Cook. All that said, the primary play will be to play Captain Cook at even money or higher and in exactas with his uncoupled stablemate McAfee. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
