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GLOBAL PICK 5: Beating the favourites with Alan Carasso

September 13, 2025

TORONTO, September 13, 2025—Not only will bettors have the opportunity to get stuck into a high-quality program on Turf Champions Day at Woodbine, but there is also an enticing wager on offer in the form of the Global Grade 1 Pick 5, which weaves in the Betfred St Leger Stakes–the last leg of the English ‘Triple Crown’ at Doncaster–and the Irish Champions Stakes from the beautiful environs of Leopardstown.

There figure to be clear betting choices in each of the legs and the sequence could definitely end up on the chalky side, but what fun is that? So with that in mind, let’s take a contrarian approach to four of the five and roll the dice, at least a little bit.

BETFRED ST LEGER S.-G1, 10:40 a.m. ET

Contested over the about distance of a mile and three-quarters, the Leger offers North American gamblers a bit of a challenge, if only because we are not routinely confronted with proper staying contests.

The absence of gun rider Ryan Moore owing to injury creates an additional layer of intrigue, and the very capable Tom Marquand takes the ride on Justify’s son Scandinavia, who figures the one to beat. Only a May foal, he thrashed his peers in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket and returned less than three weeks later to become the first 3yo to beat his elders in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup since 2017. He could turn this into a procession and it would be risky business to leave him out.

Furthur (Ire) is the price horse I’m interested in. Just beaten in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase in July, he floundered in the Bahrain Trophy after being hounded throughout, but flashed home impressively to take the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes over an extended mile and five-eighths last month. Expecting a patient ride from Oisin Murphy to save him for a finish.

ROYAL BAHRAIN IRISH CHAMPION S.-G1, 12:30 p.m. ET

In my opinion, Leopardstown most approximates North American turf courses as a galloping track that is fairly flat. Maybe this race is as simple as singling Tepin’s talented son Delacroix (Ire) and jetting back to focus on Canada, but let’s try to get a little creative.

Anmaat (Ire) figures the most logical alternative pari-mutuelly, even if his form isn’t as strong on paper as Delacroix’s. Only a massive performance from perhaps the world’s best turf horse, Ombudsman (Ire), denied this guy a win in the prestigious Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and prior to that he was outstayed by a pretty good Ballydoyle runner named Los Angeles (Ire) in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup. A mile and two furlongs is his go and one of these times it’s going to be ‘his’ time.

Shin Emperor (Fr) was a very good third here last year, but has to do much better than his well-beaten seventh when last seen in Dubai in April.

BET365 SUMMER S.-GI, 3:54 p.m. ET

When Charlie Appleby sends horses into Toronto, you know that he means business and he wins more than he doesn’t, which is no small feat when shipping horses thousands of miles.

Godolphin’s Wild Desert (Ire) is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the Summer, won by this operation in 2021 and 2022. His last appearance in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes going a straight seven furlongs is probably better than it looks on paper, as he had a horse laying all over him in the final stages and was forced to settle for a close third. William Buick has the ride and it goes without saying, he’s a should-use.

But don’t sleep on the ‘other’ Euro, Thesecretadversary (Ire), who’s done very little wrong in four starts since mid-May. Part-owned by South African interests, the chestnut decisively accounted for an odds-on favorite from Ballydoyle in the Listed Churchill Stakes at Tipperary in Ireland last time and this slightly longer trip should suit. He’s got a big, bald face, so it won’t be hard to follow him.

Two Out Hero looked very good running his record to two-from-two in the Soaring Free Stakes last time and it would be no shock to see him maintain that unbeaten record here.

JOHNNIE WALKER NATALMA S.-GI, 5:02 p.m. ET

Dance to the Music (GB) represents Appleby in the Natalma, a race won by Godolphin in 2018 and 2021. A full-sister to Grade I Breeders’ Cup Mile hero Space Blues (GB), Dance to the Music was green-lighted for this trip after staying on strongly to take out the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes over the straight seven furlongs at Newmarket. She’s an obvious player with Buick at the controls.

Deep Learning could scarcely have been more impressive when whooshing home (final 2 1/2 furlongs in :28.92) to graduate by open lengths at first asking, she just needs a trip from the high draw and a genuinely run contest would suit.

Hot Mash raced right on top of a sizzling pace on Ellis Park debut last month–to be fair, the track was very fast and hard– and raced away to score by over seven lengths. She’s a threat, but she is liable to have some company on the engine.

ROGERS WOODBINE MILE-GI, 5:39 p.m. ET

To me, Godolphin’s Notable Speech (GB) looks the likeliest single in the Global P5. A very good third in last year’s BC Mile, he was in need of the run in the Lockinge, got a questionable ride in the Queen Anne and the July Cup was a stab at a too-sharp six furlongs. He looked much more like himself when flying up the stands’ side to just miss in one of Europe’s premier mile tests last time, the Jacques Le Marois, and he should be up to this.

One Stripe (SAf) is audaciously spotted by Graham Motion and that confidence should not be taken lightly. He won South Africa’s weight-for-age mile contest with a daring dive between horses in the King’s Plate and his last in listed company is best forgiven, as he was chopped out at a critical stage. Can’t be dismissed entirely with Johnny V., but I am taking a wait-and-see approach.

Alan Carasso, for Woodbine

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