INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Best Bets for Saturday Stakes Action at Churchill Downs with Ed DeRosa If you like betting horses from all over North America then have I got the day of racing for you! The Claiming Crown is Saturday at Churchill Downs, and the annual event for claiming horses features eight “stakes” run under starter allowance conditions. I.e., only horses who have started for certain claiming prices in 2024 and 2025 are eligible. The conditions make for an interesting melange of horses, trainers, and running lines. More importantly that stew is great for betting. At the two Claiming Crowns held at Churchill Downs (2022 and 2024), favorites won just 3 of 16 races for a strike rate of 18.75% with average winning odds of 6-to-1! The national averages are 35%-40% winning favorites and 4-to 5-to-1 on the average winner. Before the bulk of the Claiming Crown races there is a graded stakes, however. The Chilukki Stakes for fillies and mares is an interesting betting race if the public does indeed side with No. 7 Ragitime as the morning line suggests. I prefer No. 6 One Magic Philly, who looked great in her first start in Kentucky last out. She figures to be on or very close to the lead early, and I think those tactics will leave Ragtime with too much to do late. Win bet on One Magic Philly. The feature of the Claiming Crown program is race 10, a 1 ⅛-mile contest for those who have started for $35,000 or less in 2024 or 2025. This contentious race attracted 16 entrants with 14 able to start. The big question for me is whether to lean on the shorter price more likely winner or go for gusto with some potential longshots. No. 10 Bernin Hot is my most likely winner as I like both his local experience (4-for-8 at Churchill Downs) and ability at nine furlongs (a win and a place from two career starts). He will likely get to dictate terms on the front end and is the horse to beat, but I’m nervous about price. Nos. 3 Happy Strike, 5 Alternate Reality, and 6 Welaka are all 20- or 15-to-1 on the morning line and worth those prices. Happy Strike is on a four-race win streak but has never been this far. He can be close to the pace, though. Alternate Reality is a closer who has not relished this distance, but he is stretching out from a Keeneland sprint, which intrigues me with all the pace here. Welaka is from the hot barn of Kelsey Danner and has a couple wins at the distance. I would bet Benin Hot to win at his morning line price. As long as he’s not too smoked off that price, I would also use him as my key with 3, 5, 6. I’d also box those four (3, 5, 6, 10). Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
