INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Best Betting Strategies for Stakes Races at Woodbine on Saturday

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Best Betting Strategies for Stakes Races at Woodbine on Saturday with expert handicapper Ed DeRosa

The first big stakes day of the Woodbine calendar is this Saturday with a quartet of graded stakes on the 11-race card.

The action starts fast and furiously with the Jacques Cartier Stakes for older sprinters featuring Canadian champion sprinter Patches O’Houlihan. This race is more likely to be a novelty than a wagering opportunity, as it is likely Patches will be 1-to-20 against his three rivals.

There has not been a 1-to-20 horse at Woodbine since 2019 when Prized Bourbon returned on just seven days rest to win a claiming race and pay $2.10. Before that, Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd was 1-to-20 on three occasions, winning twice. Overall, 1-to-20 horses (or entries) are 11-for-12 since 1991 at Woodbine.

As for the exciting betting races, the HPIBet Royal North Stakes kicks off an all-graded-stakes pick 3 as race 8 and features ten turf sprinters. No. 8 Earhart is won all three of her starts at Woodbine, but that was on the synthetic Tapeta surface. Her French breeding suggests turf should not be an issue, though, and her four-year-old debut in the Whimsical Stakes wins this easily if the form transfers to the grass.

A wildcard in here is No. 10 Gal in a Rush, who was no match for Earhart in the aforementioned Whimsical but might benefit from the switch to turf where she is 3-for-11 with five second-place performances. This is also one of the first starters for Miguel Clement, who took over for his late father Christophe last week. Clement Stables is an impressive 8-for-29 in stakes at Woodbine since 2021 and ranks second among all 21 trainers with at least 29 starts by Horse Racing Nation Impact score, which measures actual wins against expected wins based on odds.

Josie Carroll trains Earhart, and with many more stakes runners at Woodbine than Clement, still posts a respectable +4.9% HRN Impact score with a nearly break-even ROI of -2.3%.

One name to watch on the jockey side, although this is unlikely to be a surprise to fans of Woodbine, is Sofia Vives, whose 12-for-53 stakes record has her ranked second by HRN Impact (71.9%) and third by ROI (+14.8%). Her stakes mounts Saturday (No. 1 Metaphysical in the Royal North and No. 5 Kin’s Concerto in the Belle Mahone) are both outsiders, but she is an outstanding rider to play to crash the exotics.

A surprise on the trainer standings was H. Graham Motion, who has won just 1 of 21 stakes the past three years. He has a runner in each of the all-graded-stakes pick 3 races with No. 2 Toupie in the Royal North likely his best chance.

In addition to Patches O’Houilhan another champion on the card is King’s Plate winner Caitlinhergrtness making her four-year-old debut in the Belle Mahome. Trainer Kevin Attard is a 24% trainer off 90-plus-day layoffs, and Caitlinhergrtness has fired four consecutive bullet workouts ahead of this. A bullet workout means her time was the fastest for all horses at that distance that day.

My top wagering opportunity is going to be in the Royal North Stakes where I will play Gal In a Rush to win and underneath Earhart in exactas and trifectas. Toupie is the likely second choice in that race, and beating her out of the money could spice things up.

Ed DeRosa