When racing returns to Keeneland Race Course superstars of both the equine and human variety return to Lexington with it, but do not let the big names sway your wagering decisions. Over the last four autumn meetings at Keeneland, 22 jockeys have made at least 100 starts and only five of those have a flat-bet profit. Of those five, only Tyler Gaffalione would be considered a superstar of his craft. Martin Garcia leads all jockeys in both ROI (42.1%) and Horse Racing Nation Impact score (50.3%). The HRN Impact measures projected wins based on off odds with actual wins. James Graham, Luan Machado, and Corey Lanerie have similar good numbers. These are good names for bettors to remember because the money does not follow them as it does the Ortiz brothers Irad Jr. and Jose. Lanerie is especially worth watching in “short stretch” races–dirt races at 1-1 1/16 miles that end at the first finish line. His 23.8% win percentage the past four years (these numbers include the spring meeting as well) ranks second behind Gaffalione among the 17 jockeys with at least 40 starts, and his +61% ROI is easily tops. Machado is always in the mix, but his 9% win percentage against a +9% ROI suggests he has booted home some longshots. On the trainer side of things, 22 conditioners have saddled at least 61 starters with six having a positive ROI. Brad Cox and Brendan Walsh are the biggest names on that list, and it’s worth noting both train for the powerful Godolphin operation. Vicki Oliver is a much more under-the-radar name, and while her 9.8% win percentage does not suggest a lot of victories, her +8% HRN Impact and +22% ROI means if you find the right horse meant for the right spot you can get paid. So how do we put this information to use? Well, it’s not a 1 1/16-mile short stretch dirt race, but a 1 1/16-mile turf race on Saturday (race 4) features Lanerie and Machado on some decent prices. No. 5 States’ Rights has a win at Keeneland, and might get dismissed somewhat as Lanerie takes over for Jose Ortiz. No. 6 Rocky Joy I expect to improve second-off the layoff, and Machado knows this one well. In stakes action, I am going to try to upset two odds on favorites. Give me Big Dom over Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity on Saturday and Nitrogren over Thorpedo Anna in the Spinster. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
