INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Betting Value in the Late Double on Ohio Derby Day at Thistledown on Saturday. The late double on Saturday at Jack Thistledown is a pair of 1 ⅛-mile stakes races capped by the $500,000 Grade 3 Ohio Derby featuring Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes starters Chunk of Gold and Clever Again, respectively. The double begins with the $250,000 Lady Jacqueline Stakes for older females, and the purse is germane because it helps highlight that local horses do not do well in the big-money events at Jack Thistledown. Indeed, the past ten years, horses who made their last start at an Ohio track are winless in 33 attempts at these kind of stakes with just one second- and one-third-place finish to show (pun not intended) for their efforts. In the Lady Jacqueline, half the field made their last starts locally, led by No. 3 Red Hot Lass, who is 6-for-13 at Thistledown but 0-for-2 at this distance. She is the 8-to-1 morning line fourth choice, and I actually prefer No. 5 Candlelight Hours, who is 12-to-1 on the line despite a 4-2-1-1 mark at this distance with 10 wins from 25 starts at Thistledown and only one out-of-the-money finish from all those starts. She is stretching back out to 1 ⅛ miles and could outrun her odds (and the shipper stats here). The horse I like the most to hook up with Candlelight Hours is No. 7 Peignoir, who figures to be a similar price as No. 6 Where’s My Ring, but I like how Peignoir is coming into this better. No. 4 In Just My Heels factors as well, so from a wagering perspective, I am going to key No. 5 Candlelight Hours with Nos. 4, 6, & 7, and I will be No. 7 to win if she hs 5-to-2 or higher. Unlike the Lady Jacqueline, the Ohio Derby gives very little hope to the local horses, but there is another subset of shipper that figures to get overbet in this race as well: the aforementioned classic alumni. Derby starters who make their next start in a non-Grade 1 race have a -46% ROI since 1991. Bottom line is these horses get overbet, and so it goes with Chunk of Gold, the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby runner up who ran an even ninth in the Kentucky Derby and figures to get overbet off that resume–especially with Jareth Loveberry returning to the scene of his 2023 Ohio Derby win aboard Two Phils. Brass tacks is this horse is only as fast as half this field at his best, so betting him to improve greatly or everyone else to lay an egg is a bad wager. Clever Again set the pace in the Preakness before fading to last of nine. I like him a lot more than Chunk of Gold, but there is speed to his outside. He’ll earn every step of a win if he can see these nine furlongs out. However, his Hot Springs Stakes win coupled with Jose Ortiz coming in to ride means getting our price is unlikely. That leaves No. 4 McAfee, No. 9 Master Controller, and No. 10 Mo Plex as the trio we’re most interested in. McAfee is the likeliest winner of these, though I do have some class concerns given New York horses’ futility this year in national stakes. Still, the talent is clearly there, and if he is third choice then is going to be worth a bet. Master Controller and Mo Plex would be stronger plays if Clever Again stays home, but one of them is going to have either rate or make a second move from the outside to win this one. However, I think the price is right on both to use in the exotic miss. Master Controller in particular at 20-to-1 morning line is usable even with an underlaid Clever Again. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
