Use these longshots when betting the Valley View Stakes: When it comes to jockeys on the turf at Keeneland, the names on top of the standings likely come as no surprise to anyone since they’re on top of most standings wherever they ride. As gamblers, it’s always a nice surprise to see some of those names on longshots. Note: the above graphic is since Oct. 6, 2023 In the Valley View Stakes on Friday at Keeneland, Luis Saez, who leads all jockeys at Keeneland since the fall 2023 meeting with 28 turf wins is on longshot No. 5 Sturgeon Moon–a 20-to-1 morning line chance trying turf for the first time. Another big name, international champion jockey Frankie Dettori, is on another 20-to-1 chance in No. 8 Reining Flowers. Both Saez and Dettori have a positive Horse Racing Nation Impact score, which measures expected wins based on percent of the win pool against actual wins. In this instance, though, I am not as bullish on these horse’s chances to win the race as I am that they’re good enough to be in the trifecta–especially knowing you can bet these jockeys with confidence. Sturgeon Moon has a lot of angles working for her. She picks up Saez, trainer Will Walden has positive numbers going dirt to turf, and she’s stretching out to two turns. Those are all things that can signal improvement. Reining Flowers has some opposite things going for her. She’s cutting back from a longer race and given she has a win at this course and distance that’s certainly a positive. She is a stone-cold closer, so if Dettori keeps her in the clear she will be running late and can get a piece. When I like two longshots like this who aren’t necessarily win threats, I will key them underneath all the horses I like for the win spot because there’s no sense getting beat by a 2-to-1 if you’re narrow on the 20-to-1 behind her. No. 2 Play With Fire, No. 4 Vixen, No. 6 Classic Q, and No. 7 Somethinabouther all factor as win threats for me. So I’d play trifectas going 2, 4, 6, 7 with 5, 8 with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ($32 per $1) and 2, 4, 6, 7 with 2, 4, 6, 7 with 5, 8 ($24) and add a 5, 7, 8 exacta box for another $6 since those three are all longshots. That’s $62 bet. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
