INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How to Best Bet a Loaded Stakes Weekend at Saratoga with Ed DeRosa One of my favorite things about marquee meetings and big stakes weekends is the races within the races. Mark Casse versus Kevin Attard on King’s Plate weekend at Woodbine for instance or Bob Baffert against the history books in Southern California. Saratoga is a melting pot for such activity as well given how often North America’s best converge on Upstate New York, and that is certainly on display Saturday when the Whitney Stakes anchors a Grade 1 quartet. From a volume perspective it is no surprise to see names like Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz Jr. on the top jockeys’ list with Chad Brown king among conditioners. The lists get more interesting from a gambling perspective, however, given that Prat and Brown both have flat-bet profits while Ortiz does not. Another thing that caught my eye looking at both lists is that Brad Cox is a great bet but one of his go-to jockeys (Florent Geroux) is not. Trainer Christophe Clement passed away this spring, but his son Miguel took over the stable and is doing very well, so there is no reason to think those numbers cannot continue, which brings us to our first of four Grade 1 races this weekend, the Fourstardave at one Mile on turf. Johannes is the certain favorite shipping East off a Grade 2 win, which followed a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. There is every reason to think he is best of these at his best, but a 2,500-mile journey off a seven-month layoff is reason enough for me to look elsewhere. The aforementioned Brown trains a pair in here, and I greatly prefer Spirit of St. Louis, who is the only multiple Grade 1 winner on turf this year. Clement has Deterministic, who I expected to see in the Arlington Million next week at Colonial, so I see it as a vote of confidence from the barn that he shows up here at a Mile. The horse I really like in here, though, is Win For the Money, last year’s Woodbine Mile winner, who I think could get a similar trip here as he did that day. Also to his benefit is fellow Mark Casse-trained My Boy Prince (last year’s King’s Plate runner-up) drew inside and should provide a good target. The Grade 1 action continues with the Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes, and Final Gambit intrigues given the trainer Cox-jockey Prat combination. The Test Stakes leads into the Whitney, which I mention only to reference the Test. I have no opinion there. I am, however, excited to bet the Whitney. I think Post Time is going to get a similar trip as Sierra Leone, who people will stick with because of all the pace in this race (even if there are some expected scratches). My thought is Post Time will benefit from the pace as much as Sierra Leone, and we will get at least three times the price. There is no all-Grade 1 pick 4, so I will focus on betting each race separately. In the Fourstardave, I plan to bet Win For the Money to win and in exactas with Spirit of St. Louis, Deterministic, and Neat. In the Saratoga Invitational I’m all in on Final Gambit. In the Whitney, I’ll play Post Time to win, and if he is at least his morning line price of 12-1 will play exotics with Fierceness or Sierra Leone. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
