INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How to Best Bet a Pair of Grade 1 Stakes Races at Saratoga on Friday & Saturday with handicapper Ed DeRosa Saratoga is back! Sort of. This week’s racing in Upstate New York is actually closing weekend of the Belmont at Aqueduct meeting. Saratoga proper starts next week, but for the purpose of handicapping the Graveyard of Champions, this is Saratoga. And let’s focus on that moniker. Also called the Graveyard of Favorites, Saratoga has a reputation for being the site of some of the biggest upsets in Thoroughbred racing history, including Upset upsetting Man o’ War in the 2019 Sanford Stakes–the only loss of Man o’War’s 21-race career. More recent champions to go down at short prices include Jackie’s Warrior a loser 3-to-20 in 2022 Forego Stakes to make him the shortest price loser in a Grade 1 race there in the past 35 years. He can be somewhat forgiven for that loss in retrospect, however, as the winner was Cody’s Wish, who went on to win the 2022 and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Horse of the Year in 2023. The only horse to lose at 1-to-5 in a Grade 1 race since 1990 at Saratoga was Wild Spirit in the 2003 Personal Ensign Stakes. 1-to-4 horses are 3-for-3 in that same timeframe, making all horses who would pay between $2.10 and $2.50 a respectful 9-for-11 with two seconds. Admittedly, the ceiling for a sure thing is a little more lax than a 1-to-4 favorite, which implies an 80% chance of winning. “Odds on” means a horses at less than even money odds–i.e. At least a 50% chance of winning. In the past ten years, 9 tracks have had at least 8 odds on horses in Grade 1 races, and Saratoga ranks seventh in win percentage–not great but not quite the reputation as a graveyard either. Track Odds-on winners Win % HRN impact ROI Los Al 10 7 70% +20.8% +1.0% Belmont 45 29 64.4% +21.5% +1.3% Oaklawn 17 10 58.8% +8.4% -8.8% Keeneland 39 22 56.4% +5.9% -11.3% Woodbine 13 7 53.8% +2.0% -14.2% Del Mar 39 21 53.8% -1.0% -17.1% Saratoga 68 36 52.9% -2.5% -17.0% Santa Anita 82 42 51.2% -7.5% -23.7% Churchill 21 8 38.0% -22.8% -38.3% So what does that mean for betting Saratoga? Well, I definitely would not let its nickname talk me out a bet! There are two Grade 1 races this week at Saratoga: The Belmont Derby for three-year-olds on Friday and the Belmont Oaks for three-year-old fillies on Saturday. I will try to beat the (morning line) favorite in the former and eat chalk in the latter. Final Gambit outran my expectations when fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and I fell for his alleged dirt prowess in the Matt Winn Stakes, accepting his favored status in a pace compromised race. Now he’s back on turf with some speed to his inside, but that “back on turf” is a bit of a red herring considering his best races came on synthetic. I prefer Test Score in here, as I think his company lines are stronger on turf, and he has solid figures to back here as the non favorite. As for the Oaks, that is Nitrogen’s race to lose, and while I am not looking to bet her should she go as low as that 1-to-4 threshold ($2.50 to win) discussed earlier, I am more than happy to just watch the race and not try to beat her at all. She’s good. Ed DeRosa, for Woodbine Share This:Share
