INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How to Best Bet the $1-million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx on Saturday with Ed DeRosa

From a class standpoint, it is understandable that Baeza is the morning line favorite for the Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday at Parx.

Yes, it is impressive that only Sovereignty and Journalism have finished ahead of Baeza in the four races since the John Shireffs trainee broke his maiden: Second behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, third behind Sovereignty and Jounalism in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, and second behind Sovereingty in the Jim Dandy Stakes.

But what of the horses behind Baeza? I.e., it is one thing to say he’d have won those races without Journalism or Sovereignty–either of which would be odds on in the Pennsylvania Derby–but it is another to question “who’d he beat” in that scenario.

Of the three horses behind Baeza in each of his four Grade 1 placements, only Westwood has gone on to win another race–he finally broke his maiden last month at Del Mar. As impressive as it is being in Sovereignty and Journalism’s spheres, there is not a lot to recommend Baeza based on who he beat.

You can guess where this is going: I am against him as the favorite in the Pennsylvania Derby. He’ll be overbet on class but even looking at performance he does not measure well against the others in this race.

Gosger, himself second to Journalism on a pair of occasions–the Preakness and Haskell Stakes– has the fastest race based on Ragozin Data. Goal Oriented ran well in the Haskell too, and I like his chances to move forward again here whereas Gosger’s best-case scenario is to maintain his level. I’d be willing to bet either as the third choice, but I’m expecting a better price on Goal Oriented.

Magnitude is a wildcard off his dud in the Travers, but if Sovereignty is everything most people think he is, then Magnitude never really had a chance, anyway. This 1 ⅛-mile trip is probably more to his liking, anyway, and speed is always dangerous. Both Big Truzz and So Sandy could be pressing Magnitude and are dangerous if they get a clear first run on the closers.

Because I expect Baeza to be so overbet, I am willing to toss him from the exotics and box the other horses I mentioned. An exacta box using 1, 3, 6, 7, & 9 costs $20; a trifecta box with those same five horses is $30 at the 50-cent minimum. 

Ed DeRosa