INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How To Best Bet the Breeders’ Cup Classic Ed DeRosa When the good people at Railbirds asked me to write about the Breeders’ Cup Classic I was excited not only because this is the richest dirt race in the Western Hemisphere with prestige parallel to great races like the Kentucky Derby but also because my best bet of the year is running. I won’t make you wait for it: I love, LOVE, LOVE Forever Young in this spot. Forever Young was knocking on the door of greatness last year when the Japan-based runner won the Saudi and U.A.E. Derbys before finishing third in the Kentucky Derby. He returned to America after a freshening and domestic prep to finish third again in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar. He has not had quite the same this year, but there was a flash of great early on that makes me think he is the horse to beat here. Forever Young defeated Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup that was a thriller in every sense of the word. Yes, the close nature of the finish was exciting, but the ratings of this race came back so good that it is hard not to recognize it as the best race of the year. This year’s Classic on Saturday at Del Mar is giving off similar vibes–even with the scratch of Sovereignty. I have mixed reviews about that scratch. As a Forever Young stan, I was excited for him to beat the Kentucky Derby winner on the square and for us to get a good price too. Now there’s no question that Forever Young’s job is easier, but his price will reflect that. Still, with Sierra Leone and Fierceness in here–the top two finishers in last year’s Classic when Forever Young was third–Forever Young should still be a fair price. I will absolutely have my biggest win bet of the weekend on Forever Young. From an exotics standpoint, I see last year’s exacta as an overlaid duo. Fierceness is definitely a toss as the favorite, and Sierra Leone can win (obviously) but just feels too short now that Sovereignty is out. Even with Sovereignty out, the three-year-old colts can still make some noise in this race. Nevada Beach beat older males last out and is improving for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Baeza has always shown talent and hinted at more, which was in focus when he won the Pennsylvania Derby last out with the best performance figure of his career. Preakness Stakes winner Journalism is obviously in the three-year-old mix as well, but he figures to be the shortest price of the three so I’m not as excited about betting him. Still, if Forever Young does well and neither Fierceness nor Sierra Leone do then I won’t let Journalism beat me. The last contender to mention is Mindframe. I don’t like him. THe lack of real race since June concerns me. I say real race because he lost his rider in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in early September and did not race again since. He will just have to beat me. Share This:Share
