INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How to Best Bet the Breeders’ Stakes with Ed DeRosa When it comes to the Breeders Stakes on Sunday at Woodbine, two handicapping angles are especially in play for the third and final jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown: jockeys and pedigree. Jockeys because the 1 ½-mile race is around three turns of Woodbine’s inner turf course and pedigree because 12 furlongs is definitely viewed as a stayer’s race in North America. “Stayer” refers to horses capable of being brilliant over longer distances and the sires who father them. Unfortunately for those looking to maybe beat heavy favorite Tom’s Magic, jockey Rafael Hernandez is an ace at these types of races and sire Justify is no reason to try to beat this one going long on turf. Tom’s Magic was a solid second in the King’s Plate, a 1 ¼-mile synthetic race, and there is every reason to think he can improve going another quarter-mile on turf in the Breeders. I am further emboldened by trainer Michael Stidham getting three works at his Delaware Park between the Plate and Breeders. A longshot I like in this race is Watsonville Red, and while his jockey Leo Salles does not inspire confidence being 0-for-16 at this type of trip, sire Hard Spun is amazing with his progeny in this kind of race. Granted, Hard Spun is not the best sire of the group, but 17.7% winners and a 25% ROI on a horse who’s going to be a huge price and already showed some improvement when stretching to 10 furlongs in the Plate is enough reason for me to gamble. And do note that Justify is the leading sire by win percentage, further emboldening our case for Tom’s Magic as a legit favorite. That narrows my wagering strategy down to betting Watsonville Red to win and keying him in the trifecta with Tom’s Magic. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
