INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Intriguing Pick 3 Betting Opportunity for Belmont Stakes Weekend

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Intriguing Pick 3 Betting Opportunity for Belmont Stakes Weekend with handicapper Ed DeRosa

The Belmont Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga Race Course is the race of the year to date, pitting the Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes winner Journalism against each other in a rubber match of sorts that also attracted Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza and five intriguing new shooters.

Unfortunately for bettors, as intriguing as those new shooters are, they are up against it versus the aforementioned celebrity trio. From a wagering perspective, I am not sure there is any value among the new shooters, but there is certainly no value in using all of the logical horses. A stand is necessary.

Thankfully, last year’s payouts hint at opportunity. The two-horse bets (exacta and double) paid very similarly on Belmont Stakes weekend last year at Saratoga while there is a clear separation on the three- and four-horse bets (Pick 3 averaged 468-to-1 versus 300-to-1 for trifectas while the pick 4 was a 4,370-to-1 return versus 2,446-to-1 on superfectas).

That tells me that there might be some opportunity to play an exacta key box where as a bettor you take a stand on one of the top three having to be one of the ones in the top two. I’m hesitant to plant my flag in which one because as of this writing Baeza is actually the favorite to win, and there is no way I would bet him as the favorite.

You can get more creative in the multi-race wagers, though, and if your’e willing to toss the chalk in other legs of a Pick 4 or Pick 5 then getting live to the obvious in the Belmont could still be OK. So who are some longshots in the preceding races worth using?

In race 11, the Woody Stephens Stakes, I thought both Madaket Road and Neoequos both ran better-than-it-looked races in the Pat Day Mile and Kentucky Derby, respectively. Madaket Road stayed on chasing runaway winner Macho Music and should benefit from blinkers and getting to press with other speed present. Granted, one of those other speeds is Neoequos, but his 10-to-1 morning line makes me willing to give him a shot at winning this on the front end.

Race 12, the Manhattan, has a few known names in Spirit of St. Louis, Far Bridge and Integration, but both Tucson and Corruption have upside at 20- and 15-to-1 morning line, respectively. Corruption could surprise up front, and if he helps set a collapsing pace then that benefits Tuscon.

Using both Madaket Road and Neoequos in race 11 and both Corruption and Tucson in race 12 allows me to use all of Baeza, Journalism and Sovereignty in the Belmont Stakes. That is a $12 wager at the $1 base. And if there are other longshots you like (horses you expect to pay at least $15-$20) in the Woody Stephens and/or Manhattan, then you can add them for just $6/horse.

Ed DeRosa