Inside the Numbers – Preakness Stakes Betting Strategy with Ed DeRosa

One of horse racing’s best selling points is that bettors can “bet a little to win a lot,” and that is certainly true, but sometimes the win pool is so tantalizing that the best approach is to bet a lot to win a lot.

Example- the less you bet, the more you lose when you win.

So it goes in the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course where the best opportunity for increasing our bankroll comes in the win pool. This is because the win pool is far more inefficient than the other wagering options. It is alluring to try to turn a favorite into a big payout using exactas, trifectas, etc., but Journalism might be 7-to-5 in the win pool and the equivalent of even money or 4-to-5 in the exotic pools.

Looking at the last 15 editions of the Preakness Stakes, only Kentucky Derby winners have been odds on in the Preakness. Runners up (such as Journalism) have only been as low as 6-to-5 (Epicenter’s price in 2022).

As important for predicting the board, longshots aren’t really longshots either. No horse has been more than 20-to-1 the past three years, and only one in the past 15 years hit the board (Tenfold was third to eventual Triple Crown champion Justify in 2018). I.e., even though the longest shot is a huge underlay, the board is good at giving clues at who has little chance to contend for the win.

With all that in mind, I am prepared to make an extremely large win bet on Journalism if he is 6-to-5 or better. I thought he was the best three-year-old going into the Kentucky Derby, and while I can entertain thoughts that Derby winner Sovereignty, third-place finisher Baeza, or Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer might actually be better, none of those are in the Preakness.

The wackiness of the Preakness win pool plus the negative vibes surrounding the two-week turn around make me think we’ll get the price we want. Obviously the two weeks doesn’t bother me at all. The one-two finishers last year both raced on Derby day, and Journalism would really need to regress not to contend here.

For those desperate for an exotic play, the longshot I like best is American Promise, who likely needed the Derby after not racing for seven weeks following his Virginia Derby score. Seven weeks is an eternity for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. We saw War of Will similarly improve in 2019.

Ed DeRosa