INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Betting Tips You Need for Kentucky Downs Stakes Races on Saturday

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Betting Tips You Need for Kentucky Downs Stakes Races on Saturday with Ed DeRosa

When looking at the types of horses who have won stakes races at Kentucky Downs since 2021, two things are clear:

1. Ellis Park and Colonial Downs shippers do very well, and
2. Some sort of recency (no more than 2 months between races) is preferred even to the point what some might consider short layoffs working.

Let’s tackle that last point first. Since 2021, horses who had already raced at Kentucky Downs are 3-for-15 in stakes races marking their second start of the season there.

Last year’s Mint Millions winner Goliad is back to defend his title, which he earned after winning a $500,000 race the previous week. Lagynos won the Tapit Stakes last week and is back nine days later to face Goliad (and 11 others) in the Mint Millions.

Brad Cox is trying the wheel back with a pair of his trainees: Gold Cup Invitational runner-up Tawny Port returns in the Kentucky Cup Turf and flashy allowance winner Stellify in the Ladies’ Marathon. All four of these horses merit respect, and their short layoffs should not deter you from liking them.

Horses who made their previous start at Ellis are 18-for-182 (9.8%) with a +29% Horse Racing Nation Impact and +14% ROI. Colonial shippers are 7-for-57 (12%) with a +44% HRN Impact and +63% ROI. The HRN Impact measures how many wins are expected based on the win odds against actual wins. This is a complementary metric to ROI because it takes in to account all starters versus only the winners.

Fort Washington leads the Colonial brigade as the 5-to-2 morning line choice in the Turf Cup off his impressive Arlington Million win four weeks ago. He certainly fits among that group and has been consistently fast all season long. The 1 ½ miles will be uncharted territory for the son of War Story but unlikely to be a factor for him.

Those bullish on the Colonial form might look at Million runner-up Grand Sonata at a much bigger price than Fort Washington. Grand Sonata won this race last year, giving him a win at the course and distance.

If you’re looking for an even bigger price then check out Ayra Stark in the Ladies Marathon. She won an allowance race last out at Colonial and is 30-to-1 on the morning line. She has wins at 9 and 11 furlongs so the 1 5/16-mile (10 ½-furlong) distance of this race should be no issue.

Many of the Ellis shippers are big prices in the stakes on Saturday at Kentucky Downs, including Beach Gold in the Mint Millions. The 15-to-1 morning line choice won Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Mile on Aug. 2 at Ellis. Pondering won the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Sprint, and is 8-to-1 morning line in the Music City Stakes.

Of all the horses mentioned, I am most excited about Stellify since she did not win a stakes race and is rising up in class on the quick turnaround. I plan to bet her to win with confidence. The others are mainly price dependent, but Ayra Stark could be a good one to pair with Stellify, and just playing the Million exacta to repeat in the Turf Cup could be a nice payday as well.

Ed DeRosa, for Woodbine