INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Betting Tips You Need for Turf Champions Day at Woodbine

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Betting Tips You Need for Turf Champions Day at Woodbine with Ed DeRosa

The Turf Champions Pick 3 is the best bet in all of horse racing on Saturday.

The $5 minimum non sequential pick 3 is at Woodbine and begins with race 6, the Summer Stakes for two-year-old males, continues with race 8, the Natalma Stakes for juvenile fillies, and ends with Race 9, the Woodbine Mile for older horses. All three races are Grade 1 affairs at one mile on the inner turf.

That turf course distinction is important because typically Grade 1 races at Woodbine have all been on the E. P. Taylor Turf Course with one-mile events around one turn. Woodbine is redoing its main course, though, so the inner will play host to these races this year.

That is significant because it is a completely different course. The biggest difference being that one-mile races are around two turns, but other elements are different too such as a shorter stretch run.

Closers do very well on this inner course. Horses can (and do!) win gate-to-wire, but unless it is a lone speed situation, I would expect early pace pressure to inhibit front runners

In the Woodbine Mile, No. 5 Wyoming Bill is 15-to-1 morning line but checks some boxes regarding what could move him up in this race: 1. He is a dead closer and there is some very obvious pace in this race, and 2. Frankie Dettori rides for the first time, and one of the greatest jockeys ever is fresh off capturing the riding title at the all-turf Kentucky Downs. 

Of course when talking turf at Woodbine (regardless of course), trainer Charlie Appleby must be a part of the discourse. He has an entrant in all three Turf Champions Pick 3 races, and while each is likely to be favored, I don’t see them all winning, so there is opportunity.

My Pick 3 strategy will center around figuring Appleby will win at least one of the three races. However, I do not like No. 5 Dance to the Music in the Natalma. I will leave her off all my tickets, as 2-to-1 morning line is simply too short on a two-year-old filly shipping across the ocean for her first start in nearly 4 months.

No. 10 Wild Desert does look formidable for Appleby in the Summer Stakes. Third in a Group 2 last out, Wild Desert has more experience and against better horses. From a price perspective a pair of 2026 King’s Plate hopefuls look interesting. No. 7 Casson should improve stretching out, and No. 8 Marcus J looked awesome on debut for this year’s King’s Plate-winning connections.

In the Natalma, No. 1 Corsia Veloce has been overlooked by bettors in both her starts, but all she does is win. I love her stalk-and-pounce style for stretching out to a two-turn mile against other two-year-olds.

Appleby trains No. 2 Notable Speech for the Woodbine Mile. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile favorite is on a six-race losing streak, but he just missed by a head in a French Group 1 last month. He will be very tough in here, but we’ve already mentioned Wyoming Bill as a potential upsetter, and Gas Me Up merits consideration after beating that one last time, and Win For the Money is capable.

Here is my wagering plan for the $5 pick 3:

10 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 2 (this ticket costs $45 and uses all horses in the Natalma EXCEPT the likely underlaid Dance to the Music)

10 with 1, 3, 6, 8, 10 with 2, 3, 5, 8, 9 (This ticket costs $125 and narrows on Appleby in the Summer using the logical contenders in other races while still trying to beat Dance to the Music)

4, 5, 7, 8, 10 with 1, 3, 6, 8, 10 with 2 (This ticket costs $125 and narrows on Appleby in the Woodbine Mile using the logical contenders in other races while still trying to beat Dance to the Music)

Total bet is $295. This is a bigger play than I usually post, but I do think the best wagers should get the best allocation of your bankroll, and these higher-denomination, lower-takeout, non-sequential multi-race bets are the best opportunity for weekend warriors.

Ed DeRosa