INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Using Advanced Stats to Best Bet The Canada Day Racing Festival at Woodbine on Saturday. A quintet of graded stakes awaits bettors on Saturday at Woodbine, including an all-stakes pick 4 to close the ten-race card and a pair of events restricted to three-year-olds that feature several Woodbine Oaks and King’s Plate hopefuls. Because these are graded stakes, though, the races are open to any three-year-old, not just those bred in Canada as is the case for the Oaks and Plate. That’s bad news for the natives, as horses bred in Ontario in graded stakes for three-year-olds the last ten years at Woodbine are just 11-for-120 with a -32.9% Horse Racing Nation Impact and -47.5% ROI. Horses born anywhere else are 31-for-196 with a +19.8% HRN Impact and a +1.8% ROI. HRN Impact measures actual wins against the expected outcome based on the win pool. ROI measures betting each horse to win and the flat-bet return. The numbers are even more dire for Ontario-bred horses who made their last start at Woodbine. They are just 7-for-101 with a -42.5% HRN Impact and -67.4% ROI. This gives hope for the native shippers, however, as Ontario-bred horses who ship to Woodbine for these types of races are 4-for-19 with a -5.1% HRN Impact and +57.8% ROI. Unfortunately for wagering purposes, no entrant in either the Marine nor Selene Stakes, Saturday’s preps for the King’s Plate and Woodbine Oaks, respectively, qualifies under those conditions, but it still something to keep in mind. Thankfully, we can hang our hat on the fact that horses not bred in Ontario who race at Woodbine are 19-for-113 with a +39.4% HRN Impact and +27.3% flat-bet profit. This is a huge boost of confidence for No. 6 Megladoon in the Marine Stakes, as this Kentucky-bred trained by Josie Carroll for Pin Oak Stud returned to Canada after trying Grade 1 company on Kentucky Derby day. He won his last start at Woodbine, and as the 3-to-1 second choice here looks worth a bet. In the Selene Stakes for three-year-old fillies, half the field is locally trained Kentucky breds, and I like No. 4 Madame Obey best getting to stretch out in her second start off a layoff, which is a big stat for Carroll, who also trains are Marine pick. One final note on the Highlander Stakes since it features Horse of the Year Patches O’Houlihan: He looks tough but not invincible in here. More importantly, No. 1 My Boy Prince does not look any better than most of the rest of the field, and he is the 5-to-2 second choice on the morning line. I am going to toss My Boy Prince from the exotics and try to sneak Nos. 3 Niagara Skyline, 6 Ms. Tart, and/or 7 Old Chestnut into the trifecta. Share This:Share
