We have four mostly competitive graded stakes on tap for a great Saturday of racing. I say mostly because Patches has scared everyone away, but crazy things happen in short fields so I may just be putting the jinx on. Here is how I am looking at things with a $20 win bet on my top selections and sprinkling the longshots in underneath.
Race 1 G3 Jacques Cartier
Top Selection: #2 Patches O’Houlihan 1-9
This compact field indicates the respect the competition has for this incredibly talented 5yr old champion – who scarily looks stronger this season. He made short work of the field easily winning the Thorncliffe and came back with a bullet work May 24th. His only loss last season was to 2023 BC Turf Sprint champion Nobals in a throwdown race that was one for the ages. Interesting enough this race is missing from his very accomplished resume and with everyone “dodging” him – play against if you dare.
Longshot: Simcoe 6-1
He has really blossomed at Turfway Park this winter reeling off back-to-back wins doubling up with 99 Beyers, can he challenge Patches on the front and go toe-to-toe with him is the question. Trainer Katerina Vassilieva has 4 wins from 12 starts in 2025 for a 33% win rate.
Race 8 G3 Royal North
Top Selection: #10 Gal in a Rush 6-1
Classy 6-year-old mare is listed under Miguel Clement for the first time after the passing of his well-respected father Christophe, who was privately battling a rare form of eye cancer. Her turf record speaks for itself finishing in the money 9 times from 11 starts including a 2nd in the Alywow back in July 2022 in her solo start over this turf course. While she was no match for Earhart on the synthetic – odds shift in her favour to turn the tables on the lawn, especially with what looks to be a swift pace on paper, divine intervention may play a part here as many heavy hearts will be watching her closely.
Longshot: #5 Ready to Jam 12-1
Returns to where her career started and she had high expectations on her prior to her 7th place finish in the 2023 G1 Natalma, and the winner from that race She Feels Pretty has turned out to be a monster. Her comeback race was ok at CD after 7 months away and should step forward off that. Like that hot hand apprentice Pietro Moran gets the call and he is 3/10 for Casse in the last 12 months, most recently winning with Oscar Joy on May 29th. She’s very intriguing at a juicy price.
Race 9 G2 Eclipse Stakes
Top Selection: #3 Get Smokin 9-5
Hard knocking 8-year-old multiple graded stakes winner closed out his 2024 campaign with an easy gate to wire victory by 3 lengths in the Valedictory last December. He looks to be the lone speed of the race and will be very dangerous if left to his own devices. Civaci sticks with him together with Casse strike at 19% in graded stakes competition ($2.89 ROI) since 2022. Was 4th in this race last year off the bench after being pushed the whole way just giving in late – different race shape here I think and expect him to be a little higher than his morning line.
Longshot: #8 Dancing in Da’nile 20-1
Throw out his turf effort at Fairgrounds as he was never travelling comfortably at any point, but will benefit having that start under his belt. Jockey/trainer combo finish ITM 29% of the time for an average payoff of $26.03 since 2020. While his chances to win may not be seem the greatest – he can sneak in for a share at a price.
Race 10 G3 Belle Mahone
Top Selection: #9 Fashionably Fab 5-1
Recently crowned Sovereign Award winner is tough as nails and a gift at 5-1 if we get that price. She fired fresh off the bench to take this race last year and expect her to pick up right where she left off as. Hot-hand apprentice Pietro Moran will be reunited with her after missing the last half of her season due to injury in which his father took over riding duties while he recovered. While there are other logical contenders, she is the one they will have to beat.
Longshot: #3 Fortyfiveseventy 20-1
Five-year-old mare steadily improved with each race last season and was a close second to Fashionably Fab in the La Prevoyante to end her 2024 campaign at 25-1. Trainer Barb Minshall has 9 wins from 60 starts off the 61-180 day layoff for an ROI of $2.18. She isn’t a need-the-lead type and is very adaptable, and more food for thought – she was 50-1 in the 2023 Woodbine Oaks at 50-1.
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Good luck in all your wagers and safe trips for all.
@gofilly
