DeRosa’s GRID: How to Play the #WoMile card

September 16, 2017

​By Ed DeRosa for WoodbineMile.Com​

TORONTO, September 16 – The 13-race card that Woodbine has put together to support the Woodbine Mile offers a good balance of races to appeal to various handicapping styles: There are the Grade 1 international turf events, of course, but also challenging maiden races for pedigree-minded handicappers and the coup de grace from a big score potential: a 6 ½-furlong turf event for $20,000 claimers that drew 13 to help Woodbine payout its $1,425,365 Super High 5 carryover that should attract at least $2-million in new money.

Before we can get there, though, there are a pair of Pick 5s beginning in races 2 and 8 and a pair of Pick 4s beginning in races 4 and 9. They all carry guaranteed pools and fantastic opportunities to build one’s bankroll before that mandatory payout.

Here is my grid for all 13 races with wagering strategy on each of the multi-race wagers below it.

Race 2, early Pick 5 ($50,000 guaranteed pool)

In our initial write up for the early sequences, Good Bye Greg featured prominently as one of the most likely winners on the whole card, but we had to go back to the drawing board when he scratched out of race 6, the Bold Venture Stakes, as not only does his departure change the complexion of the race as a major pace threat but also our tickets because no longer do we have a strong single in that race.

Now the most likely winner in the sequence is in race 3 with #10 Avie’s Mineshaft, who’s 7-to-5 on the morning line. The only other horse who sacres me in this race is debut runner Power Empire from the Mark Casse barn. We’ll single the Avie with ours As and Bs and throw in Power Empire with just the As:

3, 6, 8 with 10 with 1, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 7 ($90)

3, 6, 8 with 5, 10 with 4, 10 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11 with 1, 2, 3, 6 ($48)

Race 4, early Pick 4 ($100,000 guaranteed pool)

The scratch of Good Bye Greg doesn’t hurt as much in the Pick 4 as I was more willing to try to beat him here considering the short price with fewer options to catch a longer price. In the introduction I mentioned Good Bye Greg’s scratch changing the complexion of the race. Indeed, #3 Puntrooskie now looks like he could go gate to wire and is an “A”.

In race 5 (leg 2), #11 Heart Rush finally broke through last out, and for the level this doesn’t have the look of an overly tough race. She can compete with these and looks to be a square price based on the 10-to-1 morning line.

The fourth leg (race 7) is among the toughest on the card and would love to get live to as many as possible.

1, 4, 7, 8, 10, 11 with 2, 5, 9, 10, 11 with 1, 2, 3, 6 with 1, 3, 6, 7, 10 ($120)

Race 8, late Pick 5 ($200,000 guaranteed)

The “late” multi-race wagers each have six-figure guaranteed pools with the Pick 5 encompassing the trio of graded stakes on turf, and the Canadian kicking things off.

The question facing bettors of this sequence is what to do with #1 Quidura here and #8 Hawksmoor in the Northern Dancer (Race 10, leg 3) because at even money at 4-to-5 on their respective morning lines, both winning would really suppress prices in the multi-race wagers.

One potentially contrarian opinion I had scratched out of race 9, so we’re going to play this thing thinking that either the favorites air or they’re both vulnerable.

1, 3, 4, 5 with 2, 3, 7 with 8 with 2, 4, 7, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12 ($72)

1 with 2, 3, 7 with 3, 4, 7, 8 with 2, 4, 7, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12 ($72)

Race 9, late Pick 4 ($300,000 pool)

This is the big one both in terms of its guaranteed pool and that half the races are Grade 1 events. The action kicks off with the aforementioned Allied Sugar Ray, and we’ll lean on him on a bunch of tickets, but #s 2, 3, & 7 with a shout out to #7 Discreet Dan, who scares me a little as a potential wire threat getting Da Silva, who should find some improvement with a cleaner trip.

The Northern Dancer is race 10 and Hawksmoor is a very likely winner, but #7 Johnny Bear is the longshot I want most off a victory in the local prep for this at the course and distance.

In the 11th, #4 Big Bazinga and #9 Pugsley are the most likely winners and fine options to lean on.

The headline Woodbine Mile is a fantastic race both in depths of talent and ways to bet it. I think the international shippers are likely to get overbet, which creates some opportunity not only on the logical World Approval but also local fan favorite Tower of Texas, who looked like he might upset Tepin in last year’s edition before falling short.

ALL with 8 with 4, 9 with ALL ($33.60)

2, 3, 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL ($72.60)

2, 3, 7 with 3, 4, 7, 8 with 2, 4, 7, 9, 10 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12 ($72)

Race 13, Super High 5 ($1,425,365 carryover)

It’s not a part of any guaranteed pool multi, and that’s good wagering layout by Woodbine because I don’t need worrying about “who I’m live to” potentially messing up my wagering strategy for this race, which should attract at least $2-million in new money.

This race goes through the two morning line choices, #4 Katrina’s Way and #5 Prized Bourbon. #2 Rockport Dancer merits a mention as well. I know for sure I’ll play that 4 or 5 has to win or if 2 wins then 4 and 5 will have to be in the super. I really don’t like using anything but all in the 5th spot. Anyone can finish 5th. In a 13-horse field that means a 9x multiplier below but so be it.

4, 5 with 2, 4, 5 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 with ALL ($144)

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eRosa is the Director of Marketing for BRISnet. Follow Ed on Twitter @EJXD2

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