INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How To Best Bet the Breeders’ Cup Turf

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: How To Best Bet the Breeders’ Cup Turf

Ed DeRosa

One of the (many!) great things about Breeders’ Cup is the chance to get really good horses at great prices.

No. 2 Goliath in the Breeders’ Cup Turf is such a horse. This is a multiple Group 1 winner who is 8-to-1 on the morning line. Most other big races–even big-time Grade 1 races–do not attract enough quality to make horses like Goliath 8-to-1.

And there is plenty of quality in this Turf led by morning line favorite Minnie Hauk, the runner up as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe favorite, and Rebel’s Romance, a two-time winner of this race who looked great in winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.

The Turf in Southern California is certainly an international affair. Eight of the 13 winners were bread in Europe; seven of the 13 winners prepped outside the United States; and 7 of the 13 winners were trained by internationally based trainers.

Two of those trainers-Aiden O’Brien with four wins in Southern California turf and Charlie Appleby with two-are represented this year with the aforementioned Minnie Hauk and Rebel’s Romance, respectively. I bring all this up not because I think those two are better than Goliath but they are better known and that usually means better bet.

So that makes Goliath the obvious play because we’re getting a horse as good as two others but at a much better price.

Longshot wise, I am going to give No. 12 Tawny Port a big shot to crash the party underneath. I would truly be shocked if one of the big three we’ve already talked about don’t win this, and even though I will be betting Goliath to win, if Minnie Hauk or Rebel’s Romance win and Tawny Port runs well to be second or third, then I want to have that trifecta.

Tawny Port has had some tough set ups trying to run down good horses on the front end, so maybe things set up for him in the Breeders’ Cup. At 30-to-1 I’m willing to find out. No. 4 Redistricting is a similar option but more forwardly placed. I would not much less than 15-to-1 on him, but of the American hopes, he interests me most along with Tawny Port.