INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Leading Rider Analysis Gives the Edge to this Horse in the San Juan Capistrano Stakes at Santa Anita Park with handicapper Ed DeRosa One of only three graded stakes in North America beyond 1 ½ miles is Sunday when Santa Anita Park plays host to the 1 ¾-mile San Juan Capistrano down the hill and once around the historic track’s turf oval. It also happens to be closing day at The Great Race Place, meaning all wagers are a mandatory payout on the 12-race card; the San Juan Capistrano is race 9 with a post time of 7:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 pacific. The race likely goes through Mrs. Astor, a five-year-old mare taking on males after beating females in the 1 ½-mile Santa Barbera by five lengths last out. She is the 8-to-5 morning line favorite and gets in at 121 pounds after toting 124-125 pounds in her previous three efforts. The horse I’m most interested in betting is Mrs. Astor’s uncoupled Jonathan Thomas-trained stablemate No. 3 Time Song, who gets a decent jockey upgrade (for a turf race) to Hector Berrios, who entering the last week of racing at Santa Anita Park was the leading rider by turf wins dating back to Dec. 26. More importantly for this tricky distance, though, Berrios is a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime beyond 1 ½ miles on turf and even including 1 ½-mile-on-turf races, he is 5-for-14 with a +133% ROI! Thomas is similarly decent at 1 ½ miles on turf, going 4-for-19 (21%) lifetime. The type of success under these funky variables from the horsemen associated with Time Song is enough for me to want to use the horse no matter what at the 8-1 morning line price. I will be betting Time Song to win and a Thomas exacta with Mrs. Astor. Ed DeRosa Share This:Share
