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#QP17 DeRosa on How to Bet the Queen’s Plate day Guaranteed Pools

July 1, 2017

By Ed DeRosa for QueensPlate.Com​

TORONTO, July 1 – As if the 13-horse Queen’s Plate weren’t a tough enough handicapping puzzle, Canada’s premiere race is only one of 13 races on the Sunday, July 2, card at Woodbine that features guaranteed pools in both Pick 5s and Pick 4s.

The baker’s dozen of races begins at noon ET with the guaranteed pool action kicking off with race 2 and its $50,000 guaranteed Pick 5 pool at 12:33 p.m. The other guaranteed pools begin with race 4 ($150,000 Pick 4 at 1:39), race 6 ($100,000 Pick 5 at 2:53), and race 10 ($300,000 Pick 4 at 5:36).

As you can see from the grid above, every race except the opener touches on at least one multi-race wager with races 4-7 and the Queen’s Plate (race 10) involving multiple such wagers.

The most important race on the day, though, for those looking to dabble in all the guaranteed offerings is race 6, the King Edward Stakes, which ends the early Pick 5, begins the late Pick 5, and is in the middle of the early Pick 4.

It’s a good race for multi-race players, too, because if you like favored Tower of Texas than he’s not a bad single, but if you don’t then you have a good chance at opening these kinds of bets by beating not only a favorite but also a single on a lot of people’s tickets.

I am taking the latter approach in part because I like favorites more in other races and because there are horses I want to bet in this race—primarily the inside horses and #7 Go Bro, who cuts back to one turn on the turf after an admiral two-turn synthetic tri.

I’d love to be live to #s 1, 2, 4, & 7 to close out the early Pick 5—they’re all above 5-to-1 on the morning line and could be 5x-10x more the will pay than Tower of Texas.

Of course, we have to get to that point first, and our heaviest leans will be on #4 Green Mask in the Highlander and #10 Carlos Sixes in the proceeding maiden race.

Green Mask looks to have the measure of this group given speed at the level. #1 Commute intrigues at 8-to-1 on the morning line just missing to King Edward favorite Tower of Texas last out but opting to cut back here rather than stretch out.

The outside post is no bargain for Carlos Sixes in this maiden race, but he’s faster than these for connections who can keep the momentum going second-off the barn change.

Race 2 & 3 are a bit more open, and we’ll spread to start the early Pick 5

As for the late Pick 5, it ends with the Queen’s Plate, which also begins the late Pick 4. Considering I don’t love the favorite in the Queen’s Plate and think a few 10- and 20-to-1 horses have legitimate chances (especially relative to their odds), I’ll try to get live to as many as possible in the feature.

Thankfully, the two turf stakes as legs 3 & 4 offer a chance to narrow, and we’ll take it with #3 Reporting Star and #6 Bullards Alley just looking much the best over their rivals in the Singspiel. The Dance Smartly is a touch different with #4 Rainha Da Bateria and #5 Suffused worth favorites, but willing to double the cost of my ticket to use #6 Uchenna and #8 Starship Jubilee.

As for the Plate, I loved Guy Caballero’s Plate Trial and am treating it as no fluke despite the 20-to-1 odds. I’d be less interested if I expected him to take money here, but the 10-to-1 morning line should hold, and I’ll take it. Malibu Secret at 20-to-1 is a less likely winner but certainly worth including off that morning line. Of the favorites, Channel Maker is the one I like most given his results against open company and minimal questions concerning the distance.

Here are my tickets with my complete ABC grid below:

Race 2, $0.20 Pick 5 part wheel ($97.20 total):

2, 3, 5, 7, 8 with 1, 2, 6, 8, 9 with 4 with 10 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 ($40)

2, 3, 7, 8 with 2, 8, 9 with 1, 4, 6 with 10 with 1, 2, 4, 7 ($28.60)

2, 3, 7, 8 with 2, 8, 9 with 4 with 2, 7, 10 with 1, 2, 4, 7 ($28.60)

Race 4, $0.20 Pick 4 part wheel ($81 total):

4 with 10 with ALL with ALL ($12.60)

4 with ALL with ALL with 4 ($25.20)

ALL with 10 with ALL with 4 ($14.40)

1, 4, 6 with 2, 7, 10 with 1, 2, 4, 7 with 2, 4, 6, 7 ($28.80)

Race 6, $0.20 Pick 5 part wheel ($128 total):

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9 with 4 with 3, 6 with 4, 5, 6, 8 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 ($128)

Race 10, $0.20 Pick 4 part wheel ($138 total):

1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 with 5, 10, 11, 12 with 2, 8 with 3, 13, 14 ($48)

1, 2, 8 with 5, 7, 10, 11, 12 with 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 with 3, 4, 6, 10, 13, 14 ($90)

TOTAL WAGERED: $444.20

We’re likely to get some help from scratches, so we’ll update the grid and the tickets following their release.

The above tickets and below grid is ideal for mixing and matching with your opinions. I.e., if you love Tower of Texas but like my ideas in other races then you can play your horse with mine. Of if one of my “A” picks is a big price and you want to add to your ticket then that can be helpful.

Good luck and enjoy the Plate!


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Ed DeRosa is the Director of Marketing for BRISnet. Follow Ed on Twitter @EJXD2

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